Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *Carolina Team Total Under (22.5 -105)

Alternate play is the game Under (43) at 42 or more

Lean – Dallas (+2.5)

Lean – Under (43)

• The Panthers could’ve beaten the Eagles last week if not for a Xavier Legette drop for a would-be touchdown and Carolina is getting too much credit in the market for the possible upset. The Panthers only had a 39% success rate in week 14 (4th-worst).
• Dallas has a 9.6% sack rate since getting back edge defender Micah Parsons, who missed 4 games with a high-ankle sprain but leads the NFL in pass-rushing efficiency.
• Cowboys interior defender Osa Odighizuwa has 45 pressures (6th) and he will wreak havoc across from RG Robert Hunt, who is surrendering a career-high 5.7% pressure rate.
• Carolina WR Adam Thielen is averaging 47.0 yards per game from the slot (3rd) but Bryce Young’s quick game will be contained by nickelback Jourdan Lewis, who is conceding 1.03 yards per cover snap in the slot (9th).
• Dallas will be without starting RG Zack Martin and C Cooper Beebe, who ranks 8th in pass-blocking efficiency.
• I expect Cooper Rush to be bombarded as edge rusher Jadeveon Clowney leads the Panthers with 30 pressures and he will be back on the field in a favorable matchup across from Cowboys RT Terence Steele has surrendered 9 sacks (2nd-most).
• Dallas TE Jake Ferguson is averaging 1.36 yards per route run (9th) and Rush will get the ball out fast to his tight end as Carolina’s defense is surrendering 0.45 EPA/target to opposing TEs (28th).
• Dallas CB Diggs is out, which hurts the Cowboys’ defense but that unit is still underrated.
• Our model favors the Panthers by 0.9 points, with a predicted total of 38.5 points, and the Cowboys apply to an 82-33-1 ATS situation.
• There is value on Dallas and the Under – both mostly due to the Dallas defense being underrated – and the best way to play it is with the Carolina Team Total Under.

1-Star Best Bet on Carolina’s Team Total Under 21.5 or more. Alternate play, If you don’t have Team Totals, is the game Under 42 or more.