Game Analysis

Lean – Baltimore (-16) over NY GIANTS

• For the first game in three seasons, there is a team favored by more than 15 points and we believe it is justified.
• The Giants are starting Tommy DeVito, who is averaging 1.5 yppp fewer than Drew Lock in his career.
• DeVito will be behind and offensive line that is missing its entire starting left side in LT Andrew Thomas and LG Jon Runyan. Backup left guard Aaron Stinne will struggle across from Ravens’ interior defender Nnamdi Madubuike, who has 43 pressures (7th).
• Baltimore edge defender Kyle Van Noy will be back on the field coming off the bye and he ranks 18th in pass-rushing efficiency. Van Noy will have his way with Giants’ backup LT Joshua Ezeudu, who surrendered 10 pressures last week with 6 of them coming in under 2.5 seconds.
• On the other side of the ball, New York will be without starting S Tyler Nubin and both starting interior defenders Rakeem Nunez-Roches and Dexter Lawrence, who ranks 5th in pass-rushing efficiency.
• The Ravens lead the NFL with a 48% heavy personnel rate, and they have a favorable matchup as the Giants are surrendering 42% more yppp versus 2-WR formations than other formations (30th).
• Baltimore’s tight ends have a 30% target share (5th-highest) and Lamar Jackson will likely increase this rate on Sunday as New York’s defense is surrendering a league-high 0.49 EPA/target to opposing tight ends.
• The Giants are unlikely to fluke their way into staying in this game as Jackson has a league-low 1.6% turnover-worthy play rate.
• The Giants are surrendering 4.9 yards per carry (30th) and they will struggle to stop the run versus a Ravens offense killing the game averaging 0.04 EPA/rush (4th).
• Our model makes Baltimore an 18.6-point favorite with a predicted total of 45.1 points.