Game Analysis

2-Star Best Bet – **New England (+6) over ARIZONA

• Kyler Murray will struggle on Sunday versus a Patriots defense with a 39% blitz rate (5th-highest) and a 41% man-coverage rate (2nd-highest). The most comparable defense to New England to go against Murray is Washington with the 6th-highest blitz rate and 7th-highest man coverage rate. Murray averaged only 4.2 yppp versus the Commanders.
• Arizona’s yards per attempt against the blitz is just 85% of their yards per attempt versus a standard pass rush (29th).
• The Cardinals’ yards per attempt against man is only 75% of their yards per attempt versus zone coverage (30th).
• Arizona has a 42% rush success rate (12th) but the run game will be shut down as New England’s rush defense ranks 6th according to our numbers.
• The Patriots have the 4th-highest run-play rate adjusted for the situation and they will move the ball on the ground as the Cardinals are surrendering a 44% rush success rate (28th).
• Drake Maye averaged 6.5 yppp in the week before the bye versus an Indianapolis defense with just a 30% pressure rate (8th-worst) because his offensive line didn’t ruin the game. Arizona’s defense has only a 31% pressure rate so Maye should play well again.
• New England applies to a 44-9 ATS situation that plays on teams with a win percentage of 0.250 or lower as an underdog coming off their bye week.
• Our model favors the Cardinals by only 3.2 points, with a predicted total of 45.1 points.

New England is a 2-Star Best Bet at +6 -115 odds or better and 1-Star to +5.