Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *HOUSTON (-2.5) over Miami

Lean – Over (47)

• The Jets had a first-and-10 at the Dolphins 27-yard line with 1:14 remaining in a tie game last week and found a way to lose. Houston would’ve been favored by 3 if Miami lost the game instead of making a game-tying 52-yard field goal in the last minute and driving 70 yards to beat New York in overtime. The Jets outgained the Dolphins by 0.7 yppl.
• Miami lost LT Terron Armstead against the Jets and he ranks 5th in pass blocking efficiency. Backup LT Patrick Paul will struggle across from Texans’ edge rusher Will Anderson, who has 9.5 sacks (7th).
• Dolphins’ RB De’Von Achane is averaging 1.59 yards per route run (2nd) but Tua Tagovailoa’s screen game will be contained as Houston’s defense is conceding only a 36% receiving success rate to opposing running backs (3rd).
• Miami All-Pro WR Tyreek Hill will be limited by CB Derek Stingley, who is conceding only 0.71 yards per cover snap (4th).
• The Texans are conceding a league-low 35% success rate to opposing tight ends and they will limit TE Jonnu Smith, who is averaging 2.06 yards per route run (4th).
• CJ Stroud is averaging 1.1 yppp fewer than he did as a rookie, but I expect Stroud to look more like last season coming out of the bye week with the full complement of weapons he had last year.
• Our model favors the Texans by 5.1 points, with a predicted total of 49.5 points.

Houston is a 1-Star Best Bet at -2.5 -120 odds or better and a Strong Opinion to -3 -105 odds.