Game Analysis

Lean – Buffalo (+2.5) over DETROIT

• Jared Goff has a league-high 1,534 passing yards targeting in-breaking routes, but the early down middle of the field play action will be limited on Sunday by Bills LB Matt Milano, who ranked 6th in coverage grade by PFF and had 2 interceptions last season before a knee injury in week 5 kept him out until this month. Milano was first-team All-Pro in 2022 due to his coverage ability.
• Buffalo’s defense is conceding just a 39% receiving success rate to opposing running backs (5th). The Bills will be even better at defending screens with Milano and they will contain RB Jahmyr Gibbs, who is averaging 1.46 yards per route run (4th).
• Lions WR Jameson Williams is averaging 0.44 EPA/target (20th) but he will be shut down by CB Christian Beneford, who is conceding only 0.53 yards per cover snap (2nd).
• Buffalo WR Amari Cooper led all Bills with 14 targets and a 38% target share last week. Cooper has a favorable matchup across from Detroit CB Carlton Davis, who surrendered 108 yards to Green Bay WR Christian Watson last week and isn’t the player he was in his prime with Tampa Bay.
• Lions’ edge defender Za’Darius Smith ranks 6th in pass-rushing efficiency but he will be limited by Buffalo’s tackles Dion Dawkins and Spencer Brown, who have been responsible for a league-low 39% of the pressures charged to the offensive line.
• Bills TE Dalton Kincaid is averaging 0.24 EPA/target (8th) and I expect Josh Allen to attack the middle of the field as Detroit’s defense is without starting linebacker Alex Anzalone.
• Buffalo WR Khalil Shakir has a 61% success rate (6th) and a favorable matchup on the inside versus Amik Robertson, who is surrendering 1.47 yards per cover snap in the slot ranking 21st out of 25 qualifying nickelbacks.
• Our model favors the Bills by 1.6 points, with a predicted total of 54.5 points, but Buffalo applies to a negative 36-78-1 ATS situation and Detroit thrives in high-scoring games, as the Lions are 24-4-1 ATS from -7 to dog when the total is 45 points or higher. The situation will keep us from playing the Bills +2.5 as a Best Bet.