Game Analysis

MINNESOTA (-7/-6.5) vs Chicago

• Sam Darnold had a 12.2-yard average depth of target last week and leads the NFL with 2635 yards on dropbacks over 2.5 seconds this season.
• Darnold can continue attacking downfield on Monday night versus a Bears defense surrendering 6.5 yppl over the past six weeks (31st).
• Minnesota’s offense is averaging 39% more yppp versus Cover 3 than other coverages (3rd) and Darnold has a favorable matchup as Chicago’s defense has the 4th-highest Cover 3 rate.
• Vikings WR Justin Jefferson is averaging 2.64 yards per route run (4th) but the emergence of WR Jordan Addison is more important in this game as the Bears have one strong cornerback and one weak cornerback. Jaylon Johnson is conceding 0.78 yards per cover snap (10th) while Tyrique Stevenson is allowing 1.65 yards per cover snap ranking 80th out of 82 qualifying cornerbacks. It is possible we even see Stevenson benched for Terell Smith. Addison is averaging 0.53 EPA/target (14th).
• Minnesota RT Brian O’Neill has conceded only 13 pressures (9th) and he will contain edge defender Montez Sweat, who ranks 16th in pass-rushing efficiency.
• Vikings RB Aaron Jones is averaging 1.33 yards per route run (8th) but the screen game will be limited as the Bears are allowing only -0.21 EPA/target to opposing running backs (2nd).
• Caleb Williams averaged 6.4 yppp in his first game against Minnesota’s blitzing defense and he has a favorable matchup if he doesn’t hold onto the ball too long. Chicago’s offense leads the NFL averaging 15% more yppp versus two-high coverages than single-high and the Vikings have a league-high 72% two-high shell rate.
• Our model makes Minnesota a 6.9-point favorite with a predicted total of 43.6. This is a toss-up but I used Chicago +7 in my spread pool (and I would have used Minn -6.5).