Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *NY JETS (-3.5) over Indianapolis

• We bet this before it was announced Anthony Richardson would be starting and I was surprised to see the market go back to -3.5 on the news before heading out to -4 again. Joe Flacco is better than Richardson and two subpar games from Flacco against the Vikings and Bills don’t necessitate an overreaction. Minnesota’s defense is allowing a league-low -0.15 EPA/play and Buffalo’s defense is conceding -0.05 EPA/play (10th).
• Flacco is averaging 0.13 EPA/play more than Richardson even after the last two games.
• Richardson will be behind an offensive line likely missing three starters in C Ryan Kelly, RG Will Fries, and LT Bernhard Raimann, who ranks 20th in pass-blocking efficiency. Rookie left tackle Matt Goncalves will struggle across from Jets edge rusher Will McDonald, who has 8.0 sacks (4th).
• Meanwhile, New York’s offensive line got healthier last week, as both LG John Simpson and RG Alijah Vera-Tucker returned. They rank 3rd and 11th respectively, in pass-blocking efficiency.
• The Jets couldn’t pick up the creative Cardinals blitzing scheme, but I expect an Aaron Rodgers bounce-back game. New York’s offense is averaging 18% more yards per attempt versus a standard pass rush than the blitz (4th) and the Indianapolis defense has a 77% standard pass rush rate (4th-highest).
• Our model favors the Jets by 8.8 points, with a predicted total of 45.1 points.

NY Jets are a 1-Star Best Bet at -4.5 or less (Strong Opinion at -5).