Game Analysis

Lean – BUFFALO (-9) over NY Jets

• The Jets defense had only 5 pressures last week without interior defender Quinnen Williams, who ranks 4th in pass-rushing efficiency. However, Williams should be back in uniform on Sunday.
• Josh Allen averaged just -0.19 EPA per play against New England’s man coverage last game, and New York’s defense has the 6th-highest Cover 1 rate, but the Jets might not be able to play as much man coverage without starting CB Sauce Gardner.
• New York backup cornerback Brandin Echols is surrendering 0.47 more yards per cover snap than Gardner, who is worth 0.9 points according to our metrics.
• Meanwhile, on the other side of the ball, Buffalo’s defense could be getting back starting CB Rasul Douglas and starting LB Matt Milano. Those two are worth 1.5 points by our metrics.
• Aaron Rodgers is averaging 21% more yards per attempt against a standard pass rush compared to the blitz this year (3rd) and the Bills have a 79% standard pass rush rate (4th-highest). Rodgers made use of the favorable matchup in his first game against Buffalo’s defense, averaging 7.2 yppp in that October game.
• However, New York’s offensive line could struggle more against Buffalo’s pass rush in this game as backup left tackle Olu Fashanu was carted off the field in the fourth quarter against the Rams. Third-string LT Max Mitchell will line up across from edge defender Greg Rousseau, who is one of 8 edge rushers with 60 pressures this season.
• Our model favors the Bills by 10.8 with a predicted total of 49.0 points, although this game does apply to a 126-75-6 late-season divisional game Under situation.