Game Analysis

Seattle (-3.5) vs CHICAGO

• Chicago’s defense is surrendering a league-high 0.24 EPA/play since firing Matt Eberflus.
• The Bears hope to turn it around with the possibility of getting back interior defender Gervon Dexter, who ranks 8th in pass-rushing efficiency. Dexter would have an excellent matchup across from possibly the worst guard in the NFL. Seahawks rookie RG Sataoa Laumea is surrendering a 13% pressure rate.
• Geno Smith will try to abate the pass rush by throwing screens. Seattle’s RBs have a 20% target share (7th-highest) but Chicago’s defense is allowing just -0.07 EPA/target to opposing running backs (5th).
• Caleb Williams is in all sorts of trouble on Thursday night with potentially the entire left side of his offensive line unable to suit up. Bears left guard Teven Jenkins is day to day with the calf injury that forced him out of last week’s game and left tackle Braxton Jones will require surgery on a fractured fibula.
• Seahawks edge defender Boye Mafe ranks 17th in pass rushing and will get at least 1 sack across from backup LT Kiran Amegadjie, who is surrendering a 13% pressure rate.
• Chicago backup LG Jake Curhan will struggle across from interior defender Leonard Williams, who ranks 10th in pass-rushing efficiency.
• Our model makes Seattle a 2.3-point favorite with a predicted total of 41.5.