Game Analysis

Lean – Carolina (+8) over TAMPA BAY

• Baker Mayfield’s 10.1 air yards per attempt last Sunday night was his 2nd-highest of the season, but the aggressiveness is catching up to him.
• Mayfield has thrown 6 interceptions in December after he’d been living on the edge all season with a 4.3% turnover-worthy play rate (29th).
• Bryce Young is averaging 0.07 EPA/play since becoming the starter in week 8 (20th) and he should be able to attack Tampa Bay’s defense as he did in week 13 in a game in which he averaged 6.2 yppp.
• Carolina’s interior offensive line is responsible for just 44% of the allowed pressures (9th) and they will limit the Buccaneers’ interior defender duo. Calijah Kancey ranks 8th in pass-rushing efficiency and Vita Vea has 41 pressures (14th).
• Panthers CB Jaycee Horn, LB Josey Jewell, interior defender A’Shawn Robinson, and RT Taylor Moton are likely out. Those four are worth 3 points according to our metrics.
• Our model makes Tampa Bay a 10.6-point favorite with a predicted total of 49.8 (although a 126-75-6 late-season division Under angle applies).