Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *NY GIANTS (+8) over Indianapolis

• This one looks ugly on the surface, but this point spread has gotten out of control for the Colts to be 8-point road favorites.
• The Giants’ three market power ratings with Drew Lock as the starter have been -7.1, -8.1, and -8.8. You can’t justify this price even if you bump New York down to 10 points worse than average.
• Indianapolis has been rated between -1.5 and -2 in the market for the last month and you’d have to bump them up to a league-average team to justify them laying this many points on the road.
• This is a case of the market inflating the number unnecessarily because one team is in a must-win situation while the perception is the other will not be trying to win. This has historically not been the case in the NFL.
• In the final two weeks of the regular season, teams that are in a must win situation (or else eliminated from playoff contention regardless of other results) are just 72-104-8 ATS against teams that are already mathematically eliminated from the playoffs. That angle tends to work best when the line is inflated, as is the case in this game.
• The Giants also apply to a very good 205-107-6 ATS situation that plays on teams that have averaged less than 13 points in their previous 3 games. They also apply to a 123-46-5 ATS situation that plays on bad teams that lost by more than 21 points the previous week.
• Indianapolis RT Braden Smith will not be in uniform and backup Matt Goncalves is allowing a pressure rate 58% more than Smith after factoring out plays with less than 4 rushers, play action, screens, short dropbacks, and time-to-throws under 2 seconds. Goncalves will struggle across from Giants edge rusher Brian Burns, who has 52 pressures (19th).
• Our model favors the Colts by just 5.0 points, with a predicted total of 40.3 points, and the situation strongly favor the Giants.

New York is a 1-Star Best Bet at +7 points or more.