Game Analysis

Lean – Under (48) – LA RAMS (-6.5) vs Arizona

• The Rams kept everything close to the line of scrimmage last game with 53% of Matthew Stafford’s targets behind the line of scrimmage and a 62% rushing play percentage.
• I expect plenty more work for Los Angeles RB Kyren Williams as the Cardinals are surrendering a 44% rush success rate (28th).
• Stafford is averaging 12% more yards per attempt against the blitz than a standard pass rush (4th) and he has a favorable matchup as Arizona’s defense has a 41% blitz rate (3rd-highest).
• Cardinals’ nickelback Garrett Williams is conceding just 0.78 yards per cover snap in the slot (2nd) and he will contain WR Cooper Kupp, who is averaging 2.31 yards per slot route run (2nd). Stafford will alternatively feature Rams WR Puka Nacua, who is averaging 0.51 EPA/target (9th).
• Arizona’s offense will be without both starting tackles Paris Johnson and Jonah Williams this week and backups Kelvin Beachum and Jackson Barton will struggle lined up across from edge rusher Jared Verse, whose 69 pressures through 16 games are the most by a rookie in the last 5 seasons.
• Cardinals’ running back James Conner suffered a right knee injury last week and it initially seemed unlikely he would suit up but head coach Jonathan Gannon did not rule out Conner being on the field this week. Conner is gaining 1.56 yards per route run (5th) and is worth 0.3 points by our numbers.
• Instead of a gimpy Conner, Kyler Murray’s safety valve against pressure will be TE Trey McBride, who is averaging 2.12 yards per route run (2nd). Los Angeles is surrendering a 58% success rate to opposing tight ends (27th).
• Our model favors the Rams by 9.3 points, with a predicted total of 45.3 points, but Arizona applies to a 125-59-6 ATS late-season angle that plays on the team with the worse record. I used the Rams in my spread pool.