Game Analysis

Note: This Best Bet was released early in the week when the total was at 41. The Under would be a Strong Opinion at 39 or 38.5.

2-Star Best Bet – **Under (41) – Tennessee at JACKSONVILLE

Lean – Tennessee (+1/pk)

• These teams met three weeks ago and the total closed 40 but it was initially bet up for this game because Mason Rudolph is better than Will Levis. However, I’m going to make the case that the total should be lower than it was in week 14.
• Levis is much worse at taking care of the ball than Rudolph but turnovers affect the point spread more while they have random effects on totals. Taking out turnovers, Rudolph is averaging 1 yppp more than Levis equating to about 2 points per game.
• Jacksonville’s offense has lost starting TE Evan Engram and starting LT Walker Little since the last Tennessee game and those two are worth 1.4 points combined by our metrics.
• The winds will be twice as strong on Sunday than they were in Nashville in week 14. Furthermore, it looks like it will be a wet afternoon this week. The conditions for scoring are about 3 points worse than three weeks ago according to our numbers.
• Two important starters being out on the Jaguars offense along with worse weather more than makes up for the upgrade under center for the Titans. The over/under for this game should be 37.5 points.
• Jacksonville’s offense has a yppp against Cover 4 only 89% of the yppp versus other coverages and Mac Jones will struggle against Tennessee’s defense leading the NFL with a 25% Cover 4 rate.
• Our model favors the Titans by 0.8 points, with a predicted total of 32.8 points.

The Under is a 2-Star Best Bet Under 40.5 or more and 1-Star down to 39.5 points (Strong Opinion to 38.5).