Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *MINNESOTA (pick) over Green Bay

• Jordan Love was 0.26 EPA/play below his season average in his first game this season against Brian Flores’ Vikings defense.
• Green Bay’s yppp against two-high safety coverages is just 85% of their yppp versus middle-field closed coverages (31st) and Love will struggle as Minnesota leads the NFL with a 70% two-high rate.
• Furthermore, the Vikings have a league-high 53% blitz rate, and the Packers have a yards per attempt against the blitz only 89% of their yards per attempt against a standard pass rush (28th).
• Green Bay is one of just four offenses with more runs than passes this season, but the ground game won’t bail them out as Minnesota’s defense is conceding -0.22 EPA/rush (2nd).
• Packers’ WR Christian Watson is averaging 1.01 yards per route run more than backup WR Dontayvion Wicks and he could miss Sunday’s game. Watson said of his left knee after last week, “It was just kind of lingering a little bit and I just couldn’t play the type of football I wanted to play, so I just had to shut it down.”
• Sam Darnold’s 9.1-yard average depth of target ranks 4th and I expect him to attack downfield in this game as Green Bay’s defense will be without starting safety Evan Williams. WR Justin Jefferson and WR Jordan Addison have combined for 24 deep receptions which is more than any other receiving tandem in the NFL.
• Our model favors the Vikings by 4.9 points, with a predicted total of 49.1 points (although a good under angle applies).

Minnesota is a 1-Star Best Bet at -1 or better.