Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *NEW ENGLAND (+4.5) over LA Chargers

• Drake Maye averaged 6.6 yppp last week as New England kept it closer than the market expected in Buffalo and Maye’s splits against the Bills are informative about this week’s game.
• Maye averaged 3.0 more yards per attempt when not blitzed last week and 0.65 more EPA per play versus zone-coverage than man against Buffalo’s defense. The Chargers defense has a 73% standard pass rush rate (9th-highest) and an 83% zone coverage rate (3rd-highest).
• Meanwhile, New England’s defense has a 41% man-coverage rate (2nd-highest) and Los Angeles does not have the receiving talent to beat man. Justin Herbert’s yards per attempt against man is only 81% of his yards per attempt versus zone coverage (30th).
• New England is just 3-12 but the Pats have been better with Maye and half of their losses have been by 6 points or less with 4 being be 3 points or less.
• The Patriots apply to a 53-16-1 ATS late-season situation that plays on teams with a win percentage of 0.250 or less and they also apply to a 61-17 ATS situation that plays on teams that have lost 5 or more games in a row.
• Our model favors the Chargers by 3.8 points, with a predicted total of 42.6 points, but the situation is strongly in favor of the Patriots.

New England is a 1-Star Best Bet at +3.5 points or more.