Game Analysis

2-Star Best Bet – **Pittsburgh Team Total Over (20.5 -125)

The alternate plays are 1-Star on Pittsburgh (+2.5) and 1-Star on the game Over (44.5/45)

Lean – PITTSBURGH (+2.5) over Kansas City

Lean – Over (44.5)

• Steelers wide receiver George Pickens will be back on the field this week and he is averaging 1.27 more yards per route run than Pittsburgh’s other wide receivers. Russell Wilson is averaging 0.17 EPA/play in the games Pickens is on the field compared to -0.20 EPA/play in the last three games without the vertical threat of Pickens.
• Wilson has a favorable matchup versus the Chiefs defense with a 36% blitz rate (7th-highest) and the 7th-highest Cover 2 rate. The Steelers’ yards per attempt against the blitz is 16% more than versus a standard pass rush (3rd) and Pittsburgh’s yards per pass play versus Cover 2 is 25% more than against other coverages (3rd).
• Kansas City All-Pro interior defender Chris Jones ranks 3rd in pass-rushing efficiency but a calf injury in last Saturday’s home victory over Houston and he is not going to play today.
• The Chiefs have a revolving door at left tackle and the current occupant is natural guard Joe Thuney, who is surrendering a 16.1% pressure rate since being moved to tackle. Thuney will struggle across from Steelers edge rusher Alex Highsmith, who is averaging 4.3 pressures per game.
• Pittsburgh interior defender Cameron Heyward ranks 2nd in pass-rushing efficiency, and should have his way with backup LG Mike Caliendo, who has been thrust into the starting lineup because Thuney is Kansas City’s best option at left tackle.
• Patrick Mahomes will try to mitigate the predicament on the left side of his offensive line like he did last week by getting the ball out quickly with a 2.33 average time to throw.
• Kansas City’s tight ends have a league-high 34% target share and TE Travis Kelce has a 56% success rate (6th), but the Chiefs’ Pro Bowler will be contained as Pittsburgh’s defense is allowing only 0.11 EPA/target to opposing tight ends (5th).
• Kansas City WR Hollywood Brown saw eight targets on 15 routes in his first game last week and he will cash in on the absence of Steelers starting CB Joey Porter, who is worth half a point according to our metrics.
• Pittsburgh applies to a 42-7-4 ATS late-season home underdog situation and a 98-41-2 ATS home after two road games angle.
• The Steelers are also 66-32-3 ATS under coach Mike Tomlin as a single-digit underdog and 23-7-3 ATS as a home dog (2-0 this season).
• Our model favors the Chiefs by 3.2 points, with a predicted total of 51.0 points. The model likes the over and the situation strongly favors the Pittsburgh side, as do the matchups.

The Steelers’ Team Total Over is a 2-Star Best Bet at 20.5 -130 odds or better and 1-Star up 21 points. Alternate plays, if you don’t have Team Totals, is 1-Star on Pittsburgh +2 or more and 1-Star on Over 45 or less.