Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – Detroit Team Total Under (27.5 -120)

Alternate play is San Francisco (+3.5)

Lean – SAN FRANCISCO (+3.5) over Detroit

• This would be a clear Best Bet on the 49ers +3.5 but the offensive line is in shambles. San Francisco placed starting LT Trent Williams and his backup, Jaylon Moore, on injured reserve. The 49ers’ third option at left tackle, Spencer Burford, did not practice Thursday or Friday due to a calf injury and is likely out. Left guard Aaron Banks will not play in either of the 49ers’ final two games due to a knee injury. Furthermore, RT Colton McKivitz’s status is in doubt for Monday night.
• Instead, we will look towards the team total because Detroit’s offense is likely to relatively struggle against a defense allowing only 5.0 yppl (5th) after compensating for the strength of schedule.
• San Francisco’s defense has the 2nd-highest Cover 4 rate and will limit Jared Goff, whose yppp versus Cover 4 is only 90% of his yppp against other coverages (25th).
• Goff will be forced into check-downs and screen with the 49ers putting a roof on the Lions’ offense and RB Jahmyr Gibbs is averaging 1.57 yards per route run (4th) but San Francisco All-Pro LB Fred Warner should contain him. The 49ers are conceding -0.07 EPA/target to opposing running backs (7th).
• San Francisco will be down to their 4th option at left tackle providing a great matchup for Detroit edge defender Za’Darius Smith, who ranks 7th in pass-rushing efficiency.
• Lions CB Carlton Davis is out, which bumps up rookie Terrion Arnold to CB1. Arnold surrendered 82 yards last week and Brock Purdy will look to pick on him with WR Jauan Jennings, who is averaging 0.44 EPA/target (17th). Jennings will also have a favorable matchup when lined up inside across from Detroit nickelback Amik Robertson, who is surrendering 1.38 yards per cover snap (8th-worst).
• Our model favors the Lions by 2.1 with a predicted total of 47.2 points. There is value on the Under and some value on the Niners and the Detroit Team Total Under is the best way to play it given the issues on the Niners’ offensive line possibly making them worse than projected. We’ve won 2 of 3 Lions’ Team Totals Under and we think there is value here as well.
• Strong Opinion on Detroit’s Team Total Under 27.5 at -125 odds or better. The alternate play, If you don’t have Team Totals, is San Francisco +3.5.