Game Analysis

WASHINGTON (-4) vs Atlanta

• Michael Penix averaged 7.3 yppp in his first start as the Giants defense was prime for Atlanta’s offensive coordinator Zac Robinson to attack. The Falcons are averaging 22% more yppp versus Cover 1 than other coverages (6th) and New York’s defense has the 5th-highest Cover 1 rate. Penix and Robinson will get a similar scheme on Sunday as Washington’s defense has the 2nd-highest Cover 1 rate.
• Furthermore, the Commanders might be without CB Marshon Lattimore, who is conceding 0.92 yards per cover snap fewer than backup CB Benjamin St-Juste.
• Atlanta RB Bijan Robinson is gaining 1.28 yards per route run (10th) but he will be shut down as Washington’s defense is conceding only a 38% receiving success rate to opposing running backs (3rd).
• Falcons WR Drake London has a 57% success rate (13th) but he will be limited on the inside by nickelback Noah Igbinoghene, who is conceding 0.85 yards per cover snap in the slot (4th). Penix will alternatively look downfield for Atlanta WR Darnell Mooney, who has 13 receptions with 20+ air yards (3rd).
• Jayden Daniels’s top two receiving options will likely be contained this week. Commanders TE Zach Ertz has a 59% success rate (4th) but the Falcons defense is conceding just 0.06 EPA/target to opposing tight ends (3rd).
• Atlanta cornerback AJ Terrell is conceding just 0.74 yards per cover snap (6th) and he will line up across from WR Terry McLaurin, whose 11 deep receptions rank 6th in the NFL.
• The scoring conditions for this game are about 6 points worse than average with high winds and rain in the forecast.
• Our model makes Washington an 8.3-point favorite with a predicted total of 46.2 points, but the situation is against the Commanders off their upset win over the Eagles (a 24-79-1 ATS situation applies).