Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *Miami Team Total Under (17.5 -125)

Alternate play, if you don’t have Team Totals, is 1-Star on Cleveland +3

Lean – CLEVELAND (+3 Even) over Miami

• It appears as if Tua Tagovailoa will be sitting this game out for the Dolphins along with WR Jaylen Waddle, who leads the Dolphins with 9.5 yards per target and is 3rd in the NFL at 0.64 EPA/target. Tyreek Hill will likely suit up but he’s not enough to carry an offense led by backup Tyler Huntley, who is averaging just 4.5 yards per pass.
• Miami TE Jonnu Smith is averaging 0.66 EPA/target (2nd) but containing tight ends has been a strength of this Browns defense, who allow only a 49% success rate to opposing tight ends (6th).
• Dorian Thompson-Robinson‘s first start of 2024 was rough, as he averaged just 3.2 yppp while throwing two interceptions. The Browns are in full tank mode as there is no other justification for starting Thompson-Robinson over Jameis Winston.
• Brown’s edge rusher Okoronkwo is out and is worth 0.5 points.
• Cleveland is averaging 8.5 points per game in 4 career starts from Thompson-Robinson.
• Thompson-Robinson took 5 sacks last week and he could be on the ground more often on Sunday as Dolphins edge defender Chop Robinson ranks 3rd in pass-rushing efficiency and the rookie will line up across from backup LT Germain Ifedi, who is surrendering a 10% pressure rate.
• Cleveland TE David Njoku is averaging 1.33 yards per route run (9th) but he could be sidelined for this game and he is worth 0.9 points according to our numbers.
• Additionally, the winds have increased in Cleveland this evening to nearly 20 mph with 30 mph gusts and some showers. The conditions in this game are 3 points worse than average for scoring according to our numbers.
• Our model favors the Dolphins by 0.5 points, with a predicted total of 30.4 points, and Cleveland applies to a 60-22-6 ATS late-season home underdog situation, a 205-107-6 ATS situation that plays on struggling offensive teams (averaged less than 13 ppg last 3 games) and a 60-23-2 ATS situation that plays on home underdogs that have lost and failed to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games.
• I’d rather not involve Cleveland QB Thompson-Robinson in the bet, so the Dolphins’ Team Total is the best option.

1-Star Best Bet on Miami Team Total Under (17.5 -125) at 17.5 -135 or better or 17 -115 or better. The Alternate play, if you don’t have Team Totals, is 1-Star on Cleveland +3.