Game Analysis
MINNESOTA (-10.5) vs Cincinnati
The Vikings return home to Minnesota after playing three straight road games to face a banged-up Bengals defense and the Vikes apply to a 116-54-4 ATS situation that plays on good teams returning home after 2 or more games on the road. Cincinnati allowed 6.2 yards per rush last week without linebacker Vontaze Burfict (questionable) in the lineup and I expect the Vikings to get whatever they want on the ground if he is unable to suit up again. Additionally, the Bengals lost Adam Jones last week, which could be costly given that Jones ranks 13th among cornerbacks in yards allowed per cover snap. In addition, safety Shawn Williams and cornerback Dre Kirkpatrick are both listed as questionable and I’d expect a massive day for either Adam Thielen or Stefon Diggs, whoever isn’t lining up across from William Jackson, if one or both of those questionable DBs does not play. On a positive note, Carlos Dunlap, who has the 3rd-most pressures from the left side in the league this season, could have a big day if he is able to play (listed as questionable) with Vikings starting tackle Mike Remmers out.
The Bengals will be without their top two running backs against a Vikings defense allowing 3.8 yards per rush (8th) and it will be up to Andy Dalton to air-it-out. Dalton may have more time than usual if Minnesota’s top pass rusher Everson Griffen (questionable) is limited. Kirk Cousins threw for 6.8 yards per pass play against the Vikings in the only game Griffen missed this season.
My model shows value on the Bengals if their questionable defenders are able to suit up and play, but injury uncertainty and situations favoring Minnesota (Cincy applies to negative 15-62-2 ATS late-season road situation in addition to the scheduling angle favoring Minnesota) will keep me off this game.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
33.1
37.5
-
Succ Pass Plays
41.1%
41.4%
-
Sack Rate
7.8%
7.1%
-
Int Rate
2.1%
1.8%
-
Deep Pass Rate
17.6%
17.2%
-
Big Pass Yards
38.4%
37.4%
-
NYPP
6.0
5.9
Rush
-
Rush Plays
23.6
31.6
-
RB YPR
3.4
4.0
-
Stuff Rate
23.9%
22.5%
-
Succ Rush Plays
39.4%
49.0%
-
Big Rush Yards
38.4%
34.5%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.5
4.1
Game
-
All Snaps
56.7
69.2
-
Early Down Succ
42.3%
45.4%
-
Succ Rate
39.4%
44.6%
-
Big Yards Rate
40.0%
37.9%
-
Yards Per Play
4.9
5.0
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.4%
0.3%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.7
28.8
-
Run Ratio
41.4%
45.7%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.2
27.6
-
Game Control
0.6
-0.6
Pass
-
Pass Plays
36.0
37.0
-
Succ Pass Plays
53.0%
40.9%
-
Sack Rate
4.0%
6.5%
-
Int Rate
1.5%
2.2%
-
Deep Pass Rate
19.6%
17.9%
-
Big Pass Yards
38.6%
32.6%
-
NYPP
7.1
5.5
Rush
-
Rush Plays
32.0
24.4
-
RB YPR
3.7
3.6
-
Stuff Rate
25.1%
21.9%
-
Succ Rush Plays
42.3%
40.7%
-
Big Rush Yards
42.9%
21.7%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.9
3.5
Game
-
All Snaps
68.0
61.4
-
Early Down Succ
49.5%
45.5%
-
Succ Rate
46.9%
41.3%
-
Big Yards Rate
41.4%
31.4%
-
Yards Per Play
5.4
4.8
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.8%
0.7%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.2
27.4
-
Run Ratio
46.8%
39.1%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.8
28.1
-
Game Control
2.6
-2.6
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
BAL |
0 – 20 L |
-11.0 |
30.6% /
27.8% |
13.9% /
5.6% |
12.9% /
5.9% |
4.0 /
6.2 |
36.4% /
45.2% |
22.7% /
19.0% |
3.5 /
3.7 |
58 /
60 |
34.1% /
39.1% |
32.8% /
40.0% |
45.7% /
32.1% |
3.8 /
4.5 |
1.7% /
0.0% |
37.9% /
70.0% |
30.8 /
32.2 |
| 2 |
HOU |
9 – 13 L |
-1.4 |
31.6% /
40.7% |
7.9% /
11.1% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
5.6 /
3.6 |
54.2% /
51.4% |
16.7% /
31.4% |
3.4 /
4.8 |
62 /
62 |
44.4% /
53.2% |
40.3% /
46.8% |
41.0% /
39.1% |
4.8 /
4.3 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
38.7% /
56.5% |
31.2 /
24.1 |
| 3 |
@GB |
24 – 27 L |
6.6 |
53.3% /
43.8% |
10.0% /
12.5% |
0.0% /
2.4% |
6.4 /
5.8 |
32.3% /
47.1% |
29.0% /
29.4% |
3.6 /
3.8 |
61 /
65 |
46.8% /
44.0% |
42.6% /
44.6% |
31.8% /
58.1% |
5.0 /
5.3 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
50.8% /
26.2% |
26.5 /
25.8 |
| 4 |
@CLE |
31 – 7 W |
16.5 |
60.6% /
29.5% |
9.1% /
4.5% |
0.0% /
2.4% |
8.0 /
3.9 |
40.0% /
41.2% |
26.7% /
35.3% |
2.9 /
2.6 |
63 /
61 |
50.0% /
32.6% |
50.8% /
32.8% |
43.4% /
33.0% |
5.6 /
3.5 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
47.6% /
27.9% |
28.3 /
26.4 |
| 5 |
BUF |
20 – 16 W |
3.1 |
43.2% /
32.6% |
2.7% /
14.0% |
5.6% /
2.7% |
8.7 /
3.2 |
22.6% /
45.8% |
22.6% /
20.8% |
2.2 /
3.4 |
68 /
67 |
37.0% /
38.8% |
33.8% /
37.3% |
47.7% /
22.2% |
5.8 /
3.3 |
1.5% /
0.0% |
45.6% /
35.8% |
25.6 /
34.8 |
| 7 |
@PIT |
14 – 29 L |
-7.2 |
35.3% /
48.0% |
11.8% /
0.0% |
6.7% /
0.0% |
3.2 /
10.7 |
22.2% /
37.0% |
38.9% /
17.4% |
4.0 /
3.4 |
52 /
71 |
32.4% /
49.1% |
30.8% /
40.8% |
35.6% /
56.5% |
3.5 /
6.0 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
34.6% /
64.8% |
29.1 /
29.4 |
| 8 |
IND |
24 – 23 W |
-0.5 |
43.8% /
39.5% |
9.4% /
9.3% |
0.0% /
2.6% |
6.8 /
5.0 |
30.4% /
60.7% |
30.4% /
10.7% |
2.6 /
4.1 |
55 /
71 |
40.0% /
48.1% |
38.2% /
47.9% |
46.0% /
18.1% |
5.1 /
4.7 |
3.6% /
0.0% |
41.8% /
39.4% |
32.7 /
31.4 |
| 9 |
@JAC |
7 – 23 L |
-7.2 |
30.0% /
55.3% |
10.0% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.0 /
6.8 |
15.8% /
41.5% |
21.1% /
12.2% |
1.6 /
3.7 |
39 /
79 |
29.6% /
44.1% |
23.1% /
48.1% |
52.7% /
32.8% |
3.8 /
5.2 |
0.0% /
1.3% |
48.7% /
51.9% |
20.2 /
21.1 |
| 10 |
@TEN |
20 – 24 L |
-2.6 |
38.9% /
43.8% |
2.8% /
8.3% |
0.0% /
2.3% |
7.1 /
4.9 |
50.0% /
52.8% |
28.6% /
16.7% |
3.8 /
5.0 |
50 /
84 |
48.7% /
46.4% |
42.0% /
47.6% |
51.0% /
34.6% |
6.2 /
5.0 |
4.0% /
1.2% |
28.0% /
42.9% |
30.9 /
26.1 |
| 11 |
@DEN |
20 – 17 W |
4.4 |
37.0% /
42.2% |
7.4% /
6.7% |
0.0% /
2.4% |
5.2 /
5.1 |
32.1% /
50.0% |
35.7% /
23.5% |
1.8 /
3.3 |
55 /
79 |
33.3% /
41.1% |
34.5% /
45.6% |
30.2% /
15.8% |
3.5 /
4.3 |
0.0% /
1.3% |
50.9% /
43.0% |
33.2 /
31.5 |
| 12 |
CLE |
30 – 16 W |
8.7 |
55.2% /
34.3% |
3.4% /
11.4% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
7.2 /
6.7 |
50.0% /
54.8% |
21.9% /
25.8% |
4.8 /
5.5 |
61 /
66 |
58.3% /
43.8% |
52.5% /
43.9% |
36.1% /
70.1% |
6.0 /
6.1 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
52.5% /
47.0% |
33.4 /
23.7 |
| 13 |
PIT |
20 – 23 L |
7.5 |
44.7% /
46.3% |
5.3% /
2.4% |
0.0% /
2.5% |
5.9 /
6.9 |
72.7% /
54.5% |
9.1% /
18.2% |
5.9 /
4.2 |
60 /
63 |
56.5% /
52.0% |
55.0% /
49.2% |
26.1% /
36.9% |
5.9 /
5.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
36.7% /
34.9% |
21.6 /
21.6 |
| 14 |
CHI |
7 – 33 L |
-9.2 |
30.0% /
54.5% |
7.5% /
6.1% |
2.7% /
0.0% |
4.1 /
7.6 |
53.8% /
55.3% |
7.7% /
31.6% |
5.4 /
6.1 |
53 /
71 |
38.5% /
58.6% |
35.8% /
54.9% |
33.3% /
43.6% |
4.4 /
6.8 |
1.9% /
0.0% |
24.5% /
53.5% |
23.5 /
30.9 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
NO |
29 – 19 W |
6.6 |
63.6% /
60.5% |
3.0% /
2.6% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
10.3 /
7.5 |
27.3% /
28.6% |
33.3% /
14.3% |
4.0 /
2.9 |
66 /
59 |
44.7% /
52.1% |
45.5% /
49.2% |
68.0% /
29.9% |
7.2 /
5.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
50.0% /
35.6% |
24.9 /
22.4 |
| 2 |
@PIT |
9 – 26 L |
-9.3 |
32.5% /
40.5% |
5.0% /
5.4% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
3.7 /
6.3 |
50.0% /
41.2% |
25.0% /
20.6% |
4.6 /
3.1 |
60 /
71 |
42.9% /
48.1% |
38.3% /
40.8% |
45.1% /
34.1% |
4.0 /
4.7 |
1.7% /
0.0% |
33.3% /
47.9% |
23.9 /
31.8 |
| 3 |
TB |
34 – 17 W |
13.1 |
63.6% /
57.1% |
0.0% /
4.8% |
0.0% /
7.5% |
11.2 /
7.5 |
37.5% /
44.4% |
12.5% /
11.1% |
3.2 /
2.9 |
73 /
51 |
52.7% /
60.0% |
49.3% /
54.9% |
45.3% /
16.7% |
6.8 /
6.7 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
54.8% /
17.6% |
27.3 /
24.8 |
| 4 |
DET |
7 – 14 L |
-2.8 |
40.6% /
40.5% |
6.3% /
16.2% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.2 /
4.2 |
63.6% /
32.4% |
9.1% /
29.4% |
4.0 /
2.9 |
54 /
71 |
55.8% /
43.4% |
50.0% /
36.6% |
42.3% /
31.1% |
5.3 /
3.6 |
5.6% /
0.0% |
40.7% /
47.9% |
25.2 /
30.0 |
| 5 |
@CHI |
20 – 17 W |
0.9 |
50.0% /
37.0% |
11.1% /
3.7% |
0.0% /
3.8% |
3.9 /
5.9 |
35.5% /
48.3% |
25.8% /
13.8% |
5.1 /
4.0 |
67 /
56 |
44.2% /
46.5% |
43.3% /
42.9% |
30.3% /
34.7% |
4.5 /
4.9 |
0.0% /
1.8% |
46.3% /
51.8% |
30.9 /
26.6 |
| 6 |
GB |
23 – 10 W |
5.9 |
44.7% /
39.0% |
0.0% /
9.8% |
2.6% /
8.1% |
6.3 /
3.8 |
35.3% /
20.8% |
41.2% /
29.2% |
3.3 /
3.0 |
72 /
65 |
43.9% /
33.3% |
40.3% /
32.3% |
46.0% /
11.5% |
4.9 /
3.5 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
47.2% /
36.9% |
30.2 /
30.1 |
| 7 |
BAL |
24 – 16 W |
5.1 |
54.8% /
36.4% |
0.0% /
11.4% |
3.2% /
0.0% |
6.1 /
3.3 |
39.4% /
40.0% |
27.3% /
35.0% |
5.1 /
3.2 |
64 /
64 |
46.9% /
36.2% |
46.9% /
37.5% |
26.3% /
29.8% |
5.6 /
3.3 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
51.6% /
31.3% |
33.2 /
25.4 |
| 8 |
@CLE |
33 – 16 W |
1.9 |
52.3% /
29.7% |
2.3% /
8.1% |
2.3% /
0.0% |
6.5 /
4.4 |
41.2% /
54.5% |
29.4% /
9.1% |
2.6 /
5.2 |
78 /
59 |
50.0% /
42.2% |
47.4% /
39.0% |
28.8% /
41.3% |
4.8 /
4.7 |
0.0% /
3.4% |
43.6% /
37.3% |
32.8 /
31.2 |
| 10 |
@WAS |
38 – 30 W |
6.2 |
65.5% /
45.7% |
0.0% /
2.2% |
6.9% /
2.2% |
10.5 /
6.8 |
51.5% /
46.4% |
30.3% /
21.4% |
3.2 /
2.9 |
62 /
74 |
60.9% /
49.1% |
58.1% /
45.9% |
52.2% /
43.0% |
6.6 /
5.3 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
53.2% /
37.8% |
34.6 /
34.1 |
| 11 |
LA |
24 – 7 W |
1.7 |
55.3% /
47.4% |
0.0% /
5.3% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
7.4 /
5.5 |
36.1% /
38.9% |
19.4% /
38.9% |
4.8 /
2.6 |
74 /
56 |
44.6% /
50.0% |
45.9% /
44.6% |
50.2% /
18.0% |
6.1 /
4.6 |
0.0% /
1.8% |
48.6% /
32.1% |
22.2 /
24.6 |
| 12 |
@DET |
30 – 23 W |
9.0 |
59.4% /
34.2% |
6.3% /
7.9% |
0.0% /
2.9% |
8.5 /
6.2 |
35.6% /
46.7% |
31.1% /
20.0% |
3.1 /
3.5 |
77 /
53 |
50.9% /
41.5% |
45.5% /
37.7% |
50.4% /
47.4% |
5.3 /
5.5 |
0.0% /
1.9% |
58.4% /
28.3% |
32.1 /
29.2 |
| 13 |
@ATL |
14 – 9 W |
0.7 |
62.5% /
34.5% |
6.3% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.5 /
6.0 |
44.1% /
45.5% |
17.6% /
22.7% |
3.2 /
4.6 |
66 /
51 |
59.2% /
46.2% |
53.0% /
39.2% |
16.5% /
23.3% |
4.8 /
5.4 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
51.5% /
43.1% |
25.9 /
22.4 |
| 14 |
@CAR |
24 – 31 L |
-5.9 |
44.0% /
29.6% |
12.0% /
7.4% |
4.5% /
4.0% |
5.1 /
4.8 |
52.4% /
41.5% |
23.8% /
19.5% |
4.8 /
5.3 |
71 /
68 |
47.3% /
43.5% |
46.5% /
36.8% |
36.2% /
47.4% |
5.0 /
5.1 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
29.6% /
60.3% |
31.7 /
33.2 |
Cincinnati Bengals
@ 
Minnesota Vikings