Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Lean – Under (41) – Buffalo (-5.5) vs MIAMI

The weather forecast is currently showing high winds and rain in Miami on Sunday. Poor weather, combined with a divisional game being play on grass, would very likely result in this matchup being a low scoring affair.

The Bills are doing everything they can to make sure Josh Allen succeeds as he led all quarterbacks this past week in play action attempts (18). Allen also utilized his legs 15 times and even managed to complete three of his four passes thrown at least 20 yards downfield. However, Allen’s average time to throw was over 3 seconds versus the Jets and I expect him to face more pressure from Miami’s front this week.

Stefon Diggs gained 9.6 yards per target in his Bills debut but it will be much more difficult for him this week against Pro Bowl caliber CBs, Xavien Howard and Byron Jones. The Dolphins may also be able to send extra help towards Diggs with WR John Brown potentially out.

The Bills finished 9th in passing play percentage despite playing most of the game with greater than 90% win probability but I expect them to focus a lot more on the ground game this week, especially if there are wet conditions.

Ryan Fitzpatrick threw 3 interceptions in week 1 and we should see Tua Tagovailoa sooner rather than later with the Dolphins likely to be held under 20 points for the second-straight week. DeVante Parker is Fitzpatrick’s best receiving option, gaining 3.92 yards per route run last Sunday before getting injured and his status is questionable for this matchup. Fitzpatrick will likely see plenty of heat from the interior as Bills’ interior linemen Ed Oliver and Quinton Jefferson combined for 10 pressures in week 1.

The Bills offense is overrated, with Josh Allen unlikely to continue playing at a high level, and the Dolphins defense is underrated with a top 10 secondary (healthy again and added Byron Jones). Our model makes Buffalo an 8.3-point favorite with a predicted total of 39.0. I’ll lean under here and will have an eye on the weather report.

Team Stats
Game Log

Bills
Dolphins

BUF

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 42.5 44.0
Succ Pass Plays 58.1% 42.4%
Sack Rate 4.5% 6.9%
Int Rate 0.0% 1.4%
Deep Pass Rate 18.7% 19.1%
Big Pass Yards 47.3% 45.1%
NYPP 8.9 5.8

Rush

Rush Plays 27.5 18.5
RB YPR 3.1 3.9
Stuff Rate 24.3% 19.1%
Succ Rush Plays 39.9% 61.8%
Big Rush Yards 52.8% 12.6%
Yards Per Rush 3.9 4.0

Game

All Snaps 70.0 62.5
Early Down Succ 51.9% 52.2%
Succ Rate 51.0% 48.1%
Big Yards Rate 48.8% 38.4%
Yards Per Play 6.9 5.2
Fumble Lost Rate 2.1% 0.9%
Time Per Play (sec) 30.1 23.4
Run Ratio 39.2% 29.4%
Starting Field Pos 30.0 23.8
Game Control 8.5 -8.5

Points 29.0 22.5

MIA

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 40.5 28.5
Succ Pass Plays 49.8% 61.5%
Sack Rate 4.6% 6.2%
Int Rate 5.0% 0.0%
Deep Pass Rate 15.8% 16.9%
Big Pass Yards 26.7% 44.6%
NYPP 6.0 9.1

Rush

Rush Plays 24.5 32.5
RB YPR 3.8 4.7
Stuff Rate 18.4% 14.6%
Succ Rush Plays 57.7% 52.9%
Big Rush Yards 25.3% 53.9%
Yards Per Rush 3.9 5.0

Game

All Snaps 65.0 61.0
Early Down Succ 56.2% 62.0%
Succ Rate 52.3% 58.8%
Big Yards Rate 26.5% 51.5%
Yards Per Play 5.2 7.3
Fumble Lost Rate 0.0% 1.6%
Time Per Play (sec) 25.8 31.4
Run Ratio 38.6% 52.8%
Starting Field Pos 23.8 24.9
Game Control -4.9 4.9

Points 19.5 26.0

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2020 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	NYJ	27 – 17 W	12.9	55.1% / 36.8%	6.1% / 7.9%	0.0% / 2.9%	6.2 / 5.3	40.6% / 60.0%	31.3% / 20.0%	3.1 / 3.5	81 / 53	48.4% / 47.5%	49.4% / 43.4%	27.5% / 47.2%	5.0 / 4.8	2.5% / 1.9%	39.5% / 28.3%	39.5 / 20.7
2	@MIA	31 – 28 W	4.2	61.1% / 48.0%	2.8% / 6.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	11.5 / 6.2	39.1% / 63.6%	17.4% / 18.2%	4.8 / 4.5	59 / 72	55.3% / 56.9%	52.5% / 52.8%	70.0% / 29.5%	8.9 / 5.7	1.7% / 0.0%	39.0% / 30.6%	20.4 / 26.9

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2020 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@NE	11 – 21 L	-5.7	51.6% / 61.9%	3.2% / 9.5%	10.0% / 0.0%	5.9 / 6.7	51.9% / 66.7%	18.5% / 11.9%	3.2 / 5.2	58 / 63	55.6% / 68.6%	51.7% / 65.1%	23.4% / 33.1%	4.6 / 5.7	0.0% / 1.6%	46.6% / 66.7%	20.8 / 29.4
2	BUF	28 – 31 L	-4.2	48.0% / 61.1%	6.0% / 2.8%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.2 / 11.5	63.6% / 39.1%	18.2% / 17.4%	4.5 / 4.8	72 / 59	56.9% / 55.3%	52.8% / 52.5%	29.5% / 70.0%	5.7 / 8.9	0.0% / 1.7%	30.6% / 39.0%	26.9 / 20.4

Buffalo Bills @

Miami Dolphins

Sun, Sep 20

10:00 AM Pacific

Game Analysis