Game Analysis

Atlanta (-5.5) vs LAS VEGAS

• I’m not going to wait for confirmation on the Raiders’ quarterback to post this write-up because I don’t think there’s a major difference between Aidan O’Connell and Desmond Ridder. O’Connell has a career -0.05 EPA/play compared to Ridder’s -0.07 EPA/play, but Ridder edges O’Connell in success rate 45% to 43%.
• Raiders’ WR Jakobi Meyers has been below a 25% target share just once since Davante Adams’ last game for Las Vegas and he has a favorable matchup in the slot across from nickleback Dee Alford, who surrendered seven catches for 127 yards last week.
• Meanwhile, the Falcons are conceding 0.08 EPA/target to opposing tight ends (5th) and they will limit rookie TE Brock Bowers, who is averaging 2.12 yards per route run (3rd).
• On the other side of the ball, Atlanta’s TE Kyle Pitts is averaging 1.40 yards per route run (8th) and he should be featured as the Raiders are allowing 0.47 EPA/target (30th).
• Las Vegas might have starting nickelback Nate Hobbs suiting up for his first game since week 9 to battle on the inside with WR Drake London, who leads the NFL averaging 2.60 yards per slot route run.
• The Falcons have a 45% rush success rate (5th) but Atlanta’s ground game will be contained as the Raiders’ rush defense ranks 5th by our metrics.
• Raiders’ star edge rusher Maxx Crosby is out.
• Our model favors the Falcons by just 2.8 points, with a predicted total of 46.9 points, but the Falcons apply to an 81-33-1 ATS bounce-back situation based on their current losing streak while the Raiders apply to an 11-44 ATS Monday night home team angle (basically, bad teams are not good at home on Monday night). I used Atlanta -4 in my spread pool.