Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – Chicago (+10) over DETROIT

Lean – Over 47.5 or less

• Chicago’s offense has solved the early season issues with the blitz under new play-caller Thomas Brown. Caleb Williams averaged 0.59 EPA/dropback versus the blitz last week against the Vikings. Williams has had his two quickest time-to-throw games in the last two weeks under Brown.
• Bears’ slot WR Keenan Allen hit a season-high 15 targets against Minnesota and he has a favorable matchup on the inside across from nickelback Amik Robertson, who is surrendering a league-high 1.65 yards per cover snap in the slot.
• Detroit’s defense will likely be without starting cornerback Carlton Davis and linebacker Alex Anzalone. The two are worth a combined 0.9 points according to our metrics.
• Lions’ backup CB Khalil Dorsey will struggle across from wide receiver DJ Moore, who has 5 receptions with 20+ air yards (16th).
• Detroit backup LB Malcolm Rodriguez has a league-high 14% missed tackle rate.
• The Lions offense has a 46% rush success rate (2nd) but the ground game will be limited by Chicago’s 8th-rated rush defense according to our numbers.
• Detroit has a yards per attempt against zone coverage just 86% of the yards per attempt versus man (30th) and Jared Goff likely won’t be at his best facing a Bears defense has an 82% zone coverage rate (7th-highest).
• Chicago CB Jaylon Johnson is conceding 0.83 yards per cover snap (19th) and he will contain WR Jameson Williams, who is averaging 0.54 EPA/target (13th).
• We make the line on this game Lions by 7.4 points with a predicted total of 49.0 points

Chicago is a Strong Opinion at +10 -115 or better.