Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *Las Vegas (+7.5) over MIAMI

Lean – Under (44)

• Gardner Minshew will start at quarterback for new Las Vegas offensive coordinator Scott Turner. Minshew will have a favorable matchup against a Dolphins defense allowing a 47% dropback success rate (21st) and is without starting cornerback Kendal Fuller, who is out due to a concussion.
• Miami backup CB Cam Smith is surrendering 1.09 more yards per cover snap than Fuller and will struggle when lined up across from WR Jakobi Meyers, who has a 60% success rate (11th).
• Raiders edge rusher Maxx Crosby has 6.5 sacks (12th) and he will wreak havoc against backup RT Kendall Lamm. Crosby has 4 Batted Passes (3rd) and will disrupt the quick game to his side of the field if Tua Tagovailoa attempts to get the ball out fast.
• Dolphins RG Robert Jones could miss this game and backup Lester Cotton is surrendering an 11% pressure rate. Miami’s offense will be 0.4 points worse without Jones according to our numbers.
• Our model favors the Dolphins by 5.9 points, with a predicted total of 42.3 points, and the Raiders apply to a 42-13 ATS situation that plays on bad teams (0.250 win pct or worse) on a 3 games or more losing streak and coming off their bye week. The bye week tends to be very helpful in resetting the morale of bad teams. Miami, meanwhile, applies to a 40-101-3 ATS big home favorite letdown situation that is based on Monday’s upset win over the Rams.

Las Vegas is a 1-Star Best Bet at +7.5 -120 or better and a Strong Opinion at +7.