Game Analysis

Lean Seattle (+3) over CINCINNATI

Lean – Over (45.5)

· Seattle’s offense is averaging 0.07 EPA/play (7th) despite four starting offensive linemen missing significant snaps this season.

· Seahawks backup left tackle Stone Forsythe ranked 4th-worst in pass-blocking efficiency but starting LT Charles Cross will be back in uniform this week to limit edge defender Trey Hendrickson, whose 22 pressures rank 12th.

· Seattle starting right guard Phil Haynes will suit up this week after missing last game and he will contain Bengals interior defender BJ Hill, who has 14 pressures (14th).

· The Seahawks are averaging 0.07 EPA/rush (2nd). Seattle RB Zach Charbonnet is one of six running backs with a first-down rate above 30% and RB Kenneth Walker is forcing 0.30 missed tackles per carry (4th). Cincinnati’s defense ranks 28th in EPA/rush and they will surrender plenty on the ground on Sunday.

· Geno Smith uses the threat of Seattle’s ground game as he has a league-high 34.3% play-action rate.

· Joe Burrow’s calf looks like it is getting back to normal after averaging a season-high 5.9 yppp in Arizona without starting WR Tee Higgins, who is likely to be back on the field this week.

· Burrow averaged 0.78 EPA/play on throws outside the numbers and had a scramble of 10 yards against the Cardinals showing his mobility is coming back.

· Our model makes Cincinnati a 2.4-point favorite with a predicted total of 48.3 points.