Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *Cincinnati (+6) over BALTIMORE

Lean – Under (52.5)

• The Bengals’ playoff chances will move to 60% with a win on Thursday night compared to 25% with a loss and Cincinnati will be without WR Tee Higgins. However, interior defender BJ Hill and LT Orlando Brown, who ranks 7th in pass blocking efficiency, are expected to suit up.
• Joe Burrow will feature TE Mike Gesicki, who has a 20% target share in games without Higgins this season compared to 5% when Higgins is on the field. Baltimore’s defense is surrendering 0.46 EPA/target to opposing tight ends (25th).
• Ravens’ CB Brandon Stephens is allowing 1.34 yards per cover snap, ranking 60th out of 70 qualifying cornerbacks, and he will struggle versus WR Ja’Marr Chase, who had 193 yards when these teams met last in week 5.
• Baltimore’s offense leads the NFL with 0.76 EPA/dropback on passes in the middle of the field but those Lamar Jackson throws will be limited on Thursday night as TE Isaiah Likely is out and the Bengals’ defense is conceding 0.08 EPA/dropback thrown to the middle of the field (8th).
• Cincinnati cornerback DJ Turner is allowing only 0.74 yards per cover snap (10th) and he will contain WR Zay Flowers, who has a 58% success rate (15th).
• Our model favors the Ravens by just 1.5 points, with a predicted total of 47.7 points, and Joe Burrow is now 17-2-2 ATS in career as an underdog of 3 points or more, including 10-0 ATS recently.

Cincinnati is a 1-Star Best Bet at +5.5 points or more (Strong Opinion at +5).