Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *Minnesota Team Total Under (24.5 -105)

Lean – JACKSONVILLE (+7) over Minnesota

• Jacksonville’s defense has all 11 starters available for the first game this season after activating safety Andrew Wingard and the Jaguars have a favorable matchup as they lead the NFL with an 84% standard pass rush rate while Sam Darnold has a yards per attempt against a standard pass rush a league-low 74% of his yards per attempt versus the blitz.
• Vikings recently acquired LT Cam Robinson from Jacksonville and he has surrendered 19 pressures (17th-most) and he will struggle across from edge rusher Josh Hines-Allen, whose 37 pressures rank 9th.
• Minnesota’s yppp against two-high safety shells is also a league-low 77% compared to single-high and Darnold will not be able to look downfield versus a Jaguars defense with a 62% two-high rate (6th-highest).
• Jacksonville CB Tyson Campbell is conceding 0.82 yards per cover snap (19th) and he should limit WR Justin Jefferson, who is averaging 0.57 EPA/target (8th).
• Trevor Lawrence is out on Sunday, but he has not been much better than Mac Jones throughout his career. Lawrence is averaging 6.1 yppp and 0.05 EPA/play, compared to Jones’s 5.9 yppp and 0.00 EPA/play. Jones is a 3.4-point downgrade from Lawrence.
• However, Jones has never had a season in which his yards per attempt against the blitz exceeded his yards per attempt against a standard pass rush, and he will be challenged by Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores, who has a league-high 52% blitz rate.
• Jaguars LG Ezra Cleveland ranks 14th in pass blocking efficiency but he will not suit up. Jacksonville LT Walker Little has surrendered 2 sacks and 4 QB Hits in only 108 pass-blocking snaps and he will struggle across from Jonathan Greenard, who ranks 6th in pass rushing efficiency.
• Minnesota’s defense has a league-high 24% Cover 4 rate, and they will look to put a lid on the deep balls to WR Brian Thomas, who is averaging 2.40 yards per route run (5th) and leads rookies with 8 receptions on balls thrown 20 yards or more in the air.
• Our model favors the Vikings by 4.0 points, with a predicted total of 40.4 points with the value on both the side and total coming from Minnesota’s offensive projection being below the market.
• Jacksonville also applies to a 101-32-2 ATS contrary situation based on the average combined cover differential of these two teams (Jags are -4.6 points per game vs the line while the Vikings have been +6.9 in average line differential).

The Vikings Team Total Under is a 1-Star Best Bet at Under 24.5 at -120 odds or better. The alternate play, if you don’t have Team Totals is 1-Star on Jacksonville +7 (to +6.5).