Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – 6-pt Teaser (-120) – Arizona (+7.5) with Kansas City (-1.5)

Lean – ARIZONA (+1.5) over NY Jets

• Arizona defensive coordinator Nick Rallis schemed up a pressure from 16 different Cardinals last week against the Bears. Caleb Williams was pressured on 46% of dropbacks significantly above Arizona’s season 28% pressure rate (29th).
• The Cardinals acquired edge defender Baron Browning from the Broncos earlier this week. Browning averaged 3.5 pressures per game last season for Denver.
• Arizona’s defense has a 39% blitz rate (6th-highest) and Aaron Rodgers’s yards per attempt against the blitz is just 82% of his yards per attempt versus a standard pass rush (28th).
• However, Rodgers completed 8 of 12 pass attempts against Houston’s blitz last week for 100 yards. It is possible that mixing WR Davante Adams into this offense is solving New York’s previous woes with the blitz.
• Jets guards John Simpson and Jake Hanson both exited last game and they were already without guard Xavier Newman and starting RG Alijah Vera-Tucker, who ranks 6th in pass blocking efficiency. Max Mitchell and rookie Olu Fashanu filled in on the interior offensive line and for the latter, it was the first time in his career that he played at guard.
• New York’s offensive line allowed 10 pressures last week and the interior was responsible for 9 of them.
• Jets interior defender Quinnen Williams has 32 pressures (4th) and edge rusher Haason Reddick has a 22% pressure rate in two games, but the pair will be contained in this game. Cardinals LG Evan Brown and RT Kelvin Beachum rank 9th and 18th respectively in pass blocking efficiency.
• Arizona’s offense is averaging a league-low 70% yppp against Cover 1 compared to other coverages and Kyler Murray will struggle as New York’s defense has the 2nd-highest Cover 1 rate.
• The Jets are likely to have both starting safeties back in uniform after Tony Adams and Ashtyn Davis were sidelined two weeks ago in Pittsburgh. They will limit Cardinals tight end Trey McBride, who is averaging 0.36 EPA/target (4th).
• These quarterbacks should take care of the ball. Rodgers has a 1.7% turnover-worthy play rate (3rd-fewest despite his higher than usual interception rate) and Murray has a 2.0% turnover-worthy play rate (4th-fewest).
• Our model makes Arizona a 3.1-point favorite with a predicted total of 47.1.

Tease Arizona (+7.5) with Kansas City (-1.5) in a Strong Opinion at +7.5 and -2 or less only.