Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – Carolina (+6.5) over NY Giants

Lean – Under (40.5)

• Bryce Young’s 7.8 air yards per attempt is higher than Andy Dalton and Young will need to throw deep balls in Germany this week versus a Giants defense allowing a league-high 76% completion rate on passes with at least 20 air yards.
• Panthers RT Taylor Moton has allowed pressure on just 2.8% of pass plays this season and he will shut down edge defender Azeez Ojulari, who ranks 15th in pass-rushing efficiency.
• However, Carolina starting left tackle Ikem Ekwonu was inactive due to an ankle injury last game and might not be able to suit up on Sunday. Ekwonu was replaced by Brady Christensen playing out of position from his normal place at center and he will struggle across from New York edge rusher Brian Burns, who has 32 pressures (15th).
• Giants’ interior defender Dexter Lawrence has 9 sacks (2nd) and he will likely add another across from Panthers backup Cade Mays, who stepped in at center with Christensen at left tackle.
• Carolina will need to use the ground game otherwise New York’s pass rush will take over. The Giants are surrendering a league-high 5.2 yards per carry.
• Daniel Jones is unlikely to be able to feature WR Malik Nabers, who is averaging 0.42 EPA/target (18th). The rookie will likely be shadowed on most of his routes by Panthers CB Jaycee Horn, who is conceding only 0.67 yards per cover snap (5th).
• This line would make sense if the Giants were at home but there is no world New York is 6.5 points better than any team on a neutral field. The market has Carolina’s defense 3 points worse than the 31st defense and I don’t believe this to be the case with edge defender Jadeveon Clowney and LB Josey Jewell back on the field along with S Jordan Fuller and edge rusher DJ Wommun this week.
• Our model favors the Giants by 4.3 points, with a predicted total of 38.6 points.

Carolina is a Strong Opinion at +6 or more.