Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *HOUSTON (+3.5) over Detroit

• Houston WR Nico Collins leads the NFL averaging 0.86 EPA/target and he has passed all tests on his hamstring with no setbacks, regained speed, and mobility. Collins is ready to go according to Aaron Wilson but for some reason, the Texans are holding him out.
• We did account for the Texans defense likely being without edge defender Will Anderson. I expect Houston’s defense to rattle Jared Goff on Sunday night as edge rusher Danielle Hunter has 39 pressures (6th) and he will line up across from LT Taylor Decker, who ranks 5th-worst in pass-blocking efficiency.
• Lions WR Jameson Williams will be back on the field for his first game since week 7 but he will be shut down by CB Derek Stingley, who is conceding 0.76 yards per cover snap (13th).
• Detroit traded for edge defender Za’Darius Smith but he is not playing tonight.
• The model favors Detroit by just 1.4 with Collins out, with a predicted total of 46.3 points, and the Lions apply to an 8-40-1 ATS subset of a 42-103-4 ATS road letdown situation based on last week’s road win over division rival Green Bay.
• Houston would have been a Strong Opinion at +3.5 or more if I knew Collins wasn’t going to play.

Houston is a 1-Star Best Bet at +3.5 at -120 or less, although those that haven’t bet it yet should play the Texans as a Strong Opinion.