Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – Philadelphia Team Total Under (24.5 -105)

Lean – DALLAS (+7) over Philadelphia

• Cowboys edge rusher Micah Parsons had 21 pressures in the first month of the season (4th) after leading the NFL in pass-rushing efficiency last year. Parsons being back for the Dallas defense cannot be understated. Parsons is worth 2.7 points according to our numbers.
• Jalen Hurts had a career-high 4 completions on passes with at least 20 air yards last week but he will not have enough time to deliver the deep ball with Parsons lined up across from Philadelphia backup LT Fred Johnson, who has surrendered 5 sacks (5th-most).
• Eagles WR DeVonta Smith is averaging 0.55 EPA/target (10th) but he will be shut down on the inside by nickelback Jourdan Lewis, who is conceding only 0.78 yards per cover snap in the slot (3rd).
• Philadelphia’s offense will be forced into methodical drives with the ground game averaging 0.03 EPA/rush (4th) versus a Cowboys defense allowing a 45% rush success rate (29th).
• Cooper Rush will start for Dallas on Sunday. Dak Prescott was averaging 0.16 EPA/play prior to this season and Rush was averaging 0.02 EPA/play. However, the Dallas supporting cast is worse this year and Prescott was averaging 0.02 EPA/play and I expect Rush to be worse than his career average as well.
• The Cowboys are 5-1 straight up and 5-1 ATS with Cooper Rush as the starting quarterback.
• Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb had a 41% first-read target share in five games with Rush in 2022 and he will be featured so long a shoulder injury last week doesn’t prevent him from being his usual self.
• The Dallas ground game has a league-low 455 rushing yards after contact and the running backs will not take the pressure off the backup quarterback.
• Our model favors the Eagles by 3.9 with a predicted total of 42.2.
• Dallas tends to play their best when hosting a division foe, as the Cowboys are 17-4 ATS at home against fellow NFC East teams since 2017, including 1-0 with Rush at QB.

The Philadelphia Team Total Under (24.5) at -115 odds or better. The alternate play, if you don’t have Team Totals, is Dallas +7 at -115 odds or better.