Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *San Francisco (-5.5) over TAMPA BAY to -6

• The 49ers are averaging 6.5 yppl (2nd) and All-Pro running back Christian McCaffrey is trending toward making his debut this weekend.
• San Francisco’s ground game is rated 6th according to our metrics and they have a favorable matchup against a Buccaneers defense allowing 4.9 yards per rush (29th).
• Tampa Bay’s defense is surrendering a 64% success rate to opposing tight ends (30th) and they will struggle with TE George Kittle, who is leading tight ends averaging 0.50 EPA/target.
• The 49ers are averaging 26% more yppp versus Cover 3 than other coverages and Brock Purdy has a favorable matchup against a Buccaneers defense with the 3rd-highest Cover 3 rate.
• Baker Mayfield’s yards per attempt against a standard pass rush is only 88% his yards per attempt versus the blitz and he will struggle as San Francisco’s defense has an 80% standard pass rush rate (2nd-highest).
• Mayfield has gotten by without WR Mike Evans and WR Chris Godwin, whose 69% success rate ranks 3rd. However, the 49ers’ defense is a different animal than the Falcons and Chiefs because San Francisco has All-Pro LB Fred Warner and ranks top 10 in EPA/target allowed to running backs and tight ends, who have been Mayfield’s answer without his starting wide receivers.
• Our model favors the 49ers by 8.2 points, with a predicted total of 46.1 points, and the SF applies to a 67-21-1 ATS road favorite off a bye angle.

San Francisco is a 1-Star Best Bet at -6 or less (Strong Opinion at -6.5).