Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *Tennessee Team Total Over (14.5 -105)

Lean – Tennessee (+8) over LA CHARGERS

• Will Levis is back under center for Tennessee’s offense and his erratic style leads to more points for both teams. Levis has a 12% deep passing rate and a 4.4% turnover-worthy play rate compared to Mason Rudolph’s 8.6% deep pass rate and 2.6% turnover-worthy play rate.
• Titans WR Calvin Ridley has 40% and 30% target shares in two games since WR DeAndre Hopkins was traded and Ridley has a favorable matchup versus two backup cornerbacks Tarheeb Still and Cam Hart.
• Chargers edge rusher Khalil Mack has 12 more pressures than anyone else on the Los Angeles defensive line, but he is battling a groin injury and the Chargers elevated edge defender Caleb Murphy putting Mack’s status in doubt on Sunday.
• The Los Angeles offense is 2nd in pass-play rate over expected the last month and Justin Herbert has gone over 100 passing yards on attempts with 10+ air yards in three straight games since the bye.
• Furthermore, Herbert has a league-high 12 completions on balls thrown at least 20 yards in the air in the last month.
• The Chargers are targeting tight ends on 36% of passes (7th-most) and averaging 0.40 EPA/dropback on middle passes (8th) but they will be limited in the area as Tennessee’s defense is allowing -0.03 EPA/play on passes in the middle of the field (3rd).
• Los Angeles WR Ladd McConkey is averaging 0.47 EPA/target (14th) but the rookie will be contained by nickelback Roger McCreary, who is conceding 0.69 yards per cover snap in the slot (2nd).
• The Chargers are averaging 27% more yppp versus Cover 4 than other coverages (5th) and Herbert will find weak points in a Titans defense that is missing both starting cornerbacks Chidobe Awuzie and L’Jarius Sneed and has the 4th-highest Cover 4 rate.
• Los Angeles RG Trey Pipkins is likely sidelined setting up backup RG Sam Mustipher to line up across from interior defender Jeffery Simmons, who has a 15% pressure rate in two consecutive games.
• Our model favors the Chargers by 8.0 with a predicted total of 42.4 points. The model likes the over and we like the Titans’ side based on the matchups and a 100-43-3 ATS contrary angle that plays on teams with a very low season spread win percentage.
• Will Levis is not my favorite quarterback but the Titans have scored 16 points or more in 10 of his 14 career starts.

The Tennessee Team Total Over 14.5 is a 1-Star Best Bet up to 15.5 points. The alternate play is 1-Star on Tennessee +8 at +7.5 or more.