Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – New England (+6.5) over CHICAGO

Lean – Under (39)

• Drake Maye is averaging 0.9 more yppp than Jacoby Brissett and the rookie is not just an improvement as a thrower because his 10.5 yards per rush leads quarterbacks with at least 100 dropbacks. Maye is averaging over 50 rushing yards per game in his three completed games.
• Chicago’s defense will have edge defender Montez Sweat and nickleback Kyler Gordon suiting up but safety Jaquan Brisker is likely going to miss his fourth straight game due to a concussion and defensive tackle Andrew Billings will be out after requiring surgery on his injured pectoral muscle.
• Caleb Williams has a 9.9% sack rate, ranking 32nd out of 36 qualifying quarterbacks, and both his starting tackles could miss this game. Bears left tackle Braxton Jones and right tackle Darnell Wright are dealing with knee injuries. Jones injured his knee against Washington and sat out Sunday’s game against the Cardinals, while Wright injured his knee Sunday in Arizona. New England edge rusher Keion White has 30 pressures (19th) and will wreak havoc across from fourth and fifth-string tackles with backup Kiran Amegadjie also sidelined. Jones, Wright, and Amegadjie all out would be worth 2.2 points according to our numbers.
• Chicago has a yards per attempt against man only 88% of the yards per attempt against zone and they will struggle versus a Patriots defense with a 39% man-coverage rate (3rd-highest).
• Our model favors the Bears by 6.7 points, with a predicted total of 35.8 points, but the situation strongly favors the Patriots.
• Chicago applies to a 26-87 ATS home favorite off a loss situation while the Patriots apply to a 126-51-7 ATS situation.

New England is a Strong Opinion at +6 or more.