Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – NEW ORLEANS (+4) over Atlanta to +3.5

• Derek Carr averaged 7.2 yppp last week despite only 4 routes from Chris Olave and I think the Saints offense will be alive in this game, especially with Falcons’ interior defender Grady Jarrett banged up and edge rusher Matthew Judon battling sickness.
• Atlanta WR Drake London has a 62% success rate (8th) but he’ll be gutting through a hip pointer on Sunday making it harder for Kirk Cousins to capitalize on New Orleans issues at cornerback.
• The Saints fired Dennis Allen and interim coach Darren Rizzi is in a great technical situation to get his team back on track. New Orleans applies to a 35-5-1 ATS subset of a 121-44-7 ATS bounce-back situation based on last week’s upset loss at Carolina. And the Saints apply to a 53-19-1 ATS situation that plays on horrible teams on a 3-games or more losing streak as home underdogs. The NFL is a contrary league and this is a great contrary spot for the Saints.
• Our model favors the Falcons by 4.7 with a predicted total of 46.6 but the situation is strong enough to play the Saints.

New Orleans is a Strong Opinion at +3.5 or more.