Game Analysis

KANSAS CITY (-8) vs Denver

• Kansas City’s offense averaged 0.14 EPA/play last Monday night despite the wet conditions due to the emergence of WR DeAndre Hopkins, who averaged 9.6 yards per target.
• Hopkins will be shut down on the outside in this game by Broncos’ cornerback Pat Surtain, who is conceding league-low 0.48 yards per cover snap. However, Hopkins is replacing much of the Rashee Rice routes in the Chiefs offense and could avoid Surtain in the slot. Hopkins caught six of his seven targets for 70 yards on in-breaking routes against the Buccaneers.
• I believe Patrick Mahomes will feature Hopkins on the inside because his other favorite target TE Travis Kelce is likely to struggle this week. Kelce has a 64% success rate (3rd) but Denver’s defense is allowing -0.33 EPA/target to opposing tight ends (2nd).
• Broncos’ edge rusher Jonathon Cooper has 31 pressures (16th) but he will be contained by RT Jawaan Taylor, who ranks 14th in pass blocking efficiency.
• Kansas City LG Joe Thuney leads the NFL in pass-blocking efficiency, and he will limit Zach Allen, who has a league-high 44 pressures on the interior defensive line.
• Denver’s offensive line leads the NFL in pass-blocking efficiency, and they will contain a Chiefs defense with a 39% pressure rate (7th-highest).
• However, Bo Nix has struggled versus two-high safety coverages with a yppp only 85% of his yppp against single-high coverage. Kansas City’s defense has a 68% two-high safety rate (2nd-highest).
• Chiefs CB Trent McDuffie is conceding only 0.65 yards per cover snap (3rd) and he will limit WR Courtland Sutton, whose 68 targets are 31 more than any other Broncos receiver.
• Nix will not be able to look downfield against Kansas City’s two-high shells, but he will attack the defense with screens. Denver’s running backs have a 22% target share (4th-highest) and the Chiefs are allowing 0.21 EPA/target to opposing running backs (26th).
• The Broncos running backs won’t fare as well on the ground despite the 43% rush success rate (9th) because Kansas City’s defense is allowing -0.17 EPA/rush (5th).
• Our model favors the Chiefs by 9.3 with a predicted total of 43.6.