Game Analysis

Note: We made a 2-Star play on Over 47 early in the week when 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy was considered 70% to play. Purdy is now ‘available’ but will not start.

The Over is just a Lean at 48.5 or 49. The Over would qualify as a Strong Opinion at 48 or 47.5 and the Over would be a 1-Star Best Bet if it goes down to 47 points.

**Over (47) – San Francisco (-2.5) vs NY GIANTS

• NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero reported Brock Purdy is expected to receive “legit reps” in practice this week, and I estimate he’s 70% to suit up for this game after being a limited participant for the past two weeks.
• The 49ers offense is not as good with Mac Jones despite the team’s 4-2 in his starts. Jones has averaged 6.3 yards per pass play compared to Purdy’s career 8.0 yppp.
• San Francisco’s offense is averaging 16% more yppp versus cover 1 compared to other coverages and has a favorable matchup as New York’s defense has a 32% cover 1 rate (5th-highest). Kyle Shanahan’s scheme, emphasizing high-low reads and double-moves, naturally exploits cover 1. The 49ers’ pre-snap motion forces defenders into trail/man techniques and creates natural picks.
• The Giants’ secondary is in poor condition, with S Jevon Holland and CB Paulson Adebo banged up – both missing last week’s game. New York cornerback Cor’Dale Flott is out, and his backup, Deonte Banks, is surrendering 12.5 yards per target and 0.3 more yards per cover snap than Flott.
• Giants’ edge defenders Abdul Carter, Brian Burns, and Kayvon Thibodeaux have combined for 84 pressures, but the trio will be contained by San Francisco’s All-Pro LT Trent Williams and RT Colton McKivitz, who ranks 14th in pass blocking efficiency.
• New York backup linebacker Darius Muasau will struggle in coverage versus RB Christian McCaffrey, who is averaging 0.35 EPA/target (2nd).
• The 49ers are one of two offenses yet to have a run of at least 20 yards this year, but I expect McCaffrey to finally break loose versus a Giants defense allowing a league-high 5.7 yards per rush.
• San Francisco’s defense, without LB Fred Warner and edge defender Nick Bosa, allowed 6.3 yppl last week to a Texans offense that came into the game with only a 41.9% success rate (26th).
• Houston’s offensive line conceded a season-low 21.4% pressure rate in the win over the 49ers because they are also missing edge rusher Bryce Huff. Huff and Bosa combined for a 15.5% pressure rate while San Francisco’s backup edge defenders are combining for a 7.3% pressure rate. The 49ers traded for edge defender Keion White this week, but he has just 3 pressures on 75 pass rushing snaps with the Patriots. The 49ers pass rush is a big problem.
• San Francisco’s defensive coordinator Robert Saleh calls the 2nd-highest cover 4 rate and cover 4 is Giants’ head coach Brian Daboll’s cheat code. Daboll’s core concepts create natural 2-on-1 floods on the boundary safety, while rub routes and condensed alignments erase Saleh’s pattern-matching. New York’s offense is averaging 30% more yppp versus cover 4 compared to other coverages (7th).
• Our model favors the Giants by 3.3 points, with a predicted total of 50.0 points with Jones at QB for SF, but I used the 49ers in my spread pool based on a 130-52-7 ATS bounce-back situation that they apply to and a 28-79-2 ATS home off 2 road losses angle that applies to New York.
• There is still value on the over, even with Jones at quarterback for San Francisco and the matchups favor the Over too.

The Over (47) was released as a 2-Star Best Bet but now the Over is a just a Lean at 48.5 (or 49), would be a Strong Opinion at 48 or 47.5 and a 1-Star Best Bet if the total drops to 47 points.