Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *Miami (-2.5) over NY JETS

1-Star Best Bet – *Over (40.5)

• The total closed 44 when these teams met in week 4. Each team has lost a starting wide receiver since, but the losses are more than offset by changes on both defenses.
• The Jets traded away two former All-Pros in CB Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams, while the Dolphins traded away edge rusher Jaelan Phillips, who has 48 pressures (11th).
• The defensive trades are worth 0.6 points more than the loss of wide receivers Garrett Wilson and Tyreek Hill, according to our metrics. Plus, Miami’s offense just got back starting RT Austin Jackson, who is worth a half point and had been out since week 1.
• The available personnel are more conducive to scoring in this game than in week 4, and the flip from grass to turf is worth 0.8 points.
• Tua Tagovailoa has previously struggled in winter conditions, but the weather in East Rutherford on Sunday has temperatures above 40 degrees and only light winds. I do not think this mild weather will affect Tagovailoa’s execution.
• Tyrod Taylor might be a minor upgrade from Justin Fields, who was the week 4 starter. Taylor is averaging 0.06 more EPA/play compared to Fields.
• I believe this total should be closer to 44, like it was in the first game between Miami and New York.
• We bet the Falcons -2.5 against the Jets last week, and Atlanta outgained them by 1.5 yppl. Special teams miscues by the Falcons were the only reason New York was able to keep it competitive.
• We have the Dolphins rated a point worse than the Falcons, and home-field advantage within the division is a point lower than out of division due to familiarity. Consequently, we’re seeing the same value on Miami this week as we had on Atlanta, and I certainly would make that bet again as the Falcons were unquestionably the right side.
• Our model favors the Dolphins by 3.6 points, with a predicted total of 45.8 points, and the Jets apply to an 18-69-1 ATS letdown situation based on last week’s upset win.

Miami is a 1-Star Best Bet at -3 -110 odds or better (Strong Opinion at -3 -115) and the Over is a 1-Star Best Bet at 41 -115 or better (Strong Opinion Over 41.5).