Game Analysis

Note: Pittsburgh has moved out of Best Bet range and is now a Strong Opinion at +5.5.

1-Star Best Bet – *Pittsburgh (+6.5) over BALTIMORE

• Baltimore’s offense is averaging -0.02 EPA/play (23rd) as Lamar Jackson hasn’t been healthy.
• Jackson missed a walkthrough practice because of a toe injury last week, missed two consecutive practices because of an ankle injury the week prior, and missed a practice because of knee soreness the week before that, coming off missing three games because of a hamstring injury.
• Jackson is rushing for 40.3 yards per game fewer than his career average, since his hamstring injury.
• The Ravens have a league-high 49% heavy personnel rate, and Jackson will continue to struggle on Sunday as the Steelers’ pass defense ranks 7th relatively against heavy personnel compared to lighter personnel.
• Baltimore RB Derrick Henry has also lost a step in the ground game. Henry had 325 carries last season as a 30-year-old, and he is averaging 1.2 yards per rush worse than he did in 2024, due to age as well as wear and tear.
• Pittsburgh’s offense is targeting tight ends on 32.2% of passes (4th-most), and this is a favorable matchup for Aaron Rodgers to get back on track, as the Ravens are surrendering a 59% success rate to opposing tight ends (26th).
• Our model favors the Ravens by 3.5 points, with a predicted total of 42.0 points, and Baltimore applies to a 69-141-3 ATS home favorite situation that is based on last week’s upset loss.
• Pittsburgh is usually at their best when they’re playing their worst. The Steelers are 35-7 straight up and 36-6 ATS when they are 0.500 or worse straight up and against the spread for the season and coming off a loss of more than 17 points.
• Mike Tomlin is also 25-8-3 ATS as an underdog of 2 points or more against a divisional opponent as head coach of the Steelers.

Pittsburgh is a 1-Star Best Bet at +6 points or more (Strong Opinion to +5).