Game Analysis

Lean – Under (47.5) – Indianapolis (-1.5) vs JACKSONVILLE

• Jacksonville’s defense will likely get back DT Arik Armstead on Sunday. Armstead ranks 8th in pass-rushing efficiency, and he is worth a half point.
• The Jaguars got nickelback Jourdan Lewis back last week after missing three games. Lewis is conceding 0.93 yards per cover snap in the slot (6th), and he will limit banged-up WR Josh Downs, who is gaining 1.60 yards per slot route run (4th).
• Jacksonville’s defense will likely be missing edge rusher Travon Walker again. Walker has a 12.7% pressure rate compared to his backup, Dawuane Smoot, who has only a 5.7% pressure rate.
• The Colts have a 34% play action rate (2nd-highest), and Daniel Jones has a favorable matchup against a Jaguars defense surrendering 22% more yards per attempt against play action compared to standard dropbacks (25th).
• Indianapolis will be without its top two players in defense, DT DeForest Buckner and CB Sauce Gardner, who left last game in the first quarter with a calf injury. Gardner is allowing 0.35 yards per cover snap fewer than backup Mekhi Blackmon. Buckner had a 12.0% pressure rate compared to backup Neville Gallimore’s 7.4% pressure rate.
• Trevor Lawrence should be without his blindside protection as LT Walker Little is likely sidelined. Colts edge rusher Laiatu Latu has 47 pressures (12th), and he would have a favorable matchup across from backup left tackle Cole Van Lanen.
• This game is forecasted to take place during a downpour. We have scoring conditions projected to be about 6 points worse than average.
• Our model makes Indianapolis a 1.2-point favorite with a predicted total of 45.8 points.