Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – Under (54.5) – DETROIT (-3.5) vs Dallas

• Dallas is conceding just a 34.1% rush success rate since trading for interior defender Quinnen Williams (7th).
• Williams also has 5+ QB pressures in each of his 3 games with the Cowboys, and he will wreak havoc across from Lions backup LG Kayode Awosika, who has surrendered 3 sacks (10th-most) despite only starting 4 games.
• Detroit TE Sam LaPorta is sidelined but WR Amon-Ra St. Brown has been upgraded to probable.
• The Cowboys have the 3rd-highest cover 3 rate, and Jared Goff will struggle as he ranks 30th relatively against cover 3 compared to other coverages.
• The Lions have the 5th-highest cover 1 rate, and Dak Prescott leads the NFL, averaging 37% more yppp against cover 1 compared to other coverages.
• Detroit’s coverage was sticky last week, but it didn’t matter, and we could see a possible repeat this week versus wide receivers George Pickens and CeeDee Lamb. Jordan Love averaged 7.8 yppp against the Lions on Thanksgiving despite targeting open receivers on a career-low 20.0% of his attempts. Detroit’s high variance cover 1 could get burned again or they might come down with a couple of interceptions.
• Dallas backup left tackle Nathan Thomas has surrendered pressure on 16.7% of his pass sets, excluding plays with less than 4 rushers, play action, screens, short dropbacks, and time-to-throws under 2 seconds, and he will struggle across from edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson, who leads the NFL with 71 pressures.
• Our model favors the Lions by 2.8 points, with a predicted total of 52.0 points, but Detroit is 14-0 straight up and 13-1 ATS following their last 14 losses (13-0 ATS not laying double-digits) and I used Detroit in my spread pool.

The Under is a Strong Opinion at 54 points or more.