Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – Tennessee (+4) over CLEVELAND

• Shedeur Sanders has a league-low 28.9% success rate. For reference, Dillon Gabriel’s success rate was 35.4%. The Browns are plainly starting the worst quarterback in the NFL this week, and I don’t believe they can be favored by more than a field goal against anybody.
• Cleveland right tackle Jack Conklin is out, and his backup, KT Leveston, has surrendered 5 sacks, ranking 13th-most in the NFL despite playing less than half the snaps this season.
• Titans’ interior defender Jeffery Simmons leads the NFL in pass-rushing efficiency, but he could be limited as Cleveland’s interior offensive line is at fault for a league-low 34% of the allowed pressures. However, Browns RG Wyatt Teller is likely sidelined, and he is worth 0.3 points. Simmons will target backup RG Teven Jenkins.
• Cleveland’s defense leads the NFL with a 33% cover-1 rate, and they will shut down Tennessee’s passing attack as the Titans do not have the receiver talent to beat man-coverage. Cam Ward’s yppp against cover 1 is only 77% of his yppp against other coverages (31st).
• Browns DT Maliek Collins has a season-ending quad injury. Collins ranks 12th in pass-rushing efficiency and is worth a half point to Cleveland’s defense.
• Our model favors the Browns by just 2.3 points, with a predicted total of 34.8 points, and the Titans apply to a 133-58-6 ATS road underdog situation that plays on bad teams against home favorites with a losing record.

Tennessee is a Strong Opinion at +3.5 points or more.