Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – 6-point Teaser – LA Rams (-2.5) with LA Chargers (+8.5)

LA CHARGERS (+2.5) over Philadelphia

• Philadelphia’s defense surrendered 0.20 EPA/rush on Black Friday, and the Chargers are going to protect their offensive line and banged-up Justin Herbert by running the ball as much as possible. Los Angeles could get back starting RB Omarion Hampton this week, and backup RB Kimani Vidal forced 12 missed tackles last week – the most by a Chargers player since 2020.
• The Eagles are going to be without interior defender Jalen Carter, who has a 5.6% run stop rate, while backup Byron Young has only a 1.9% run stop rate. Carter has a 10.4% pressure rate compared to Young with a 3.6% pressure rate. Carter is worth half a point according to our metrics.
• The Eagles and Chargers are missing two of the most valuable starting tackles in the NFL in RT Lane Johnson and LT Joe Alt. The Chargers are averaging 0.7 yppl fewer with Alt off the field this season, and the Eagles are averaging 0.7 yppl fewer with Johnson off the field since 2022.
• Philadelphia backup right tackle Fred Johnson will struggle across from edge defender Tuli Tuipulotu, who ranks 5th in pass rushing efficiency.
• Los Angeles has an 85% zone-coverage rate (2nd-highest), and they will limit Jalen Hurts, who ranks 31st relatively against zone compared to man-coverage.
• Our model favors the Eagles by just 0.2 points, with a predicted total of 42.6 points, and the Chargers apply to an 86-38-1 ATS Monday night home team angle.

Strong Opinion – 6-point Teaser – LA Rams (-2.5) with LA Chargers (+8.5) at -2.5 or less and +7.5 or more.