Game Analysis

GREEN BAY (-6.5) vs Chicago

• The Bears are averaging 0.10 EPA/play (7th) since the bye week and are 2nd in EPA per designed rush, but I expect Chicago’s ground game to be limited by a Packers defense allowing just -0.12 EPA/rush (6th).
• Green Bay’s defense also ranks 6th relatively against play action compared to standard dropbacks, and they will contain Caleb Williams, who has a 33% play action rate (3rd-highest).
• Williams ranks 26th relatively against a standard pass rush compared to a blitz, and he will struggle as the Packers lead the NFL with a 78% standard pass rush rate.
• Green Bay doesn’t need to blitz because edge rusher Micah Parsons will get home regardless. Parsons had 10 pressures and 2.5 sacks on Thanksgiving for a 38.5% pressure rate, his highest in a game since his rookie season. Parsons will dominate rookie LT Ozzy Trapilo, who surrendered a team-high 4 pressures in Philadelphia.
• The Packers will be without interior defender Devonte Wyatt, who ranks 17th in pass-rushing efficiency.
• The Bears are surrendering a 53.8% rush success rate over the last two weeks (30th) without both starting linebackers, and RB Josh Jacobs has a favorable matchup toting the rock unless linebacker TJ Edwards can get back on the field.
• Chicago edge rusher Montez Sweat has 7.5 sacks (12th). However, Jordan Love won’t be threatened as Sweat will line up across from RT Zach Tom, who ranks 7th in pass blocking efficiency.
• We favor Green Bay by 5.7 points (matchups included), with a predicted total of 45.6 points, but the Packers apply to a 67-20-3 ATS statistical indicator and I used Green Bay in my spread pool.