Game Analysis

Note: The Over has moved out of Best Bet range is a Strong Opinion Over 54.5 points.

1-Star Best Bet – *Over (52.5) – BUFFALO (-5.5) vs Cincinnati

• This total is too low because the Bills called a run on 63.5% of their plays last week, their 4th-highest rate in a game since drafting Josh Allen in 2018. Furthermore, Allen had one of only 6 games in his career with 0 passes with 20+ air yards. Buffalo’s offense revolved around the ground game because the high winds made it tougher to throw and the Bills were missing both starting tackles and TE Dalton Kincaid.
• Scoring conditions will be about 3 points more favorable to passing this week compared to last week, according to our metrics, and Buffalo’s offense will get back to attacking downfield with LT Dion Dawkins, RT Spencer Brown, and Kincaid likely back on the field.
• Dawkins is allowing a 6.6% pressure rate, and he is a major upgrade over the Bills’ backup tackle Ryan Van Demark, who is surrendering a 9.3% pressure rate.
• Kincaid is averaging 2.01 more yards per route run compared to Buffalo backup TE Dawson Knox.
• Furthermore, Allen will go against a Bengals’ defense without edge rusher Trey Hendrickson, whose impact is profound. Cincinnati’s defense is allowing 0.9 yppl more with Hendrickson off the field compared to on the field.
• Joe Burrow averaged 0.20 EPA/play in his first game back on Thanksgiving in Baltimore without WR Tee Higgins, who will likely be back in uniform for this game. The Bills’ defense is about a point worse than the Ravens implied by the betting market, and Higgins upgrades Cincinnati’s offense by a point. Higgins is averaging 0.33 EPA/target (16th).
• Buffalo edge defender Joey Bosa suffered a hamstring injury in the fourth quarter last week and did not return. Bosa ranks 18th in pass-rushing efficiency and is very likely to miss this week’s game.
• The Bills’ defense is allowing a 43.2% rush success rate (25th), and it jumps to 50.8% against inside zone as they have been without interior defender Ed Oliver and linebacker Terrel Bernard. The Bengals have a 30% inside zone usage rate (2nd-highest), and RB Chase Brown will have a favorable matchup on the ground versus a delicate Buffalo interior.
• There could be light snow or flurries during this game. Snow increases scoring as long as it isn’t inches thick because it slows down the pass rush and causes players to slip when trying to make a tackle. Historically, games with light snow are 1-point higher scoring compared to average.
• Our model favors the Bills by 4.8 points, with a predicted total of 57.5 points.
• Cincinnati applies to a negative 47-105-4 ATS letdown situation based on last week’s upset win over a division rival but Joe Burrow is 19-2-2 ATS in his career as an underdog of 3 points or more, including 12 straight spread wins. I used Cincy in my spread pool.

The Over is a 1-Star Best Bet at 54 points or less (Strong Opinion Over 54.5).