Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – Under (42.5) – New Orleans at TAMPA BAY

Lean – New Orleans (+8.5)

• This game will come down to how the quarterbacks respond to the blitz. The Saints’ defense has a 42% blitz rate (4th-highest), and the Buccaneers’ defense has a 42% blitz rate (5th-highest).
• Tampa Bay’s yards per attempt versus the blitz is a league-low 78% of its yards per attempt against standard pass rushes. Meanwhile, the New Orleans offense ranks 5th relatively versus the blitz compared to standard pass rushes.
• The Saints will likely be without S Justin Reid. New Orleans decided on a rotation at the position when Reid came out of the game last week. Reid is conceding 6.2 yards per target while backups Jordan Howden and Terrell Burgess are combining to allow 8.4 yards per target.
• This total was a smidge too high until it became apparent Wednesday night it is going to rain throughout this game. A wet ball combined with blustery winds have scoring conditions predicted to be at least 5 points worse than average. The total is undoubtedly too high given the current weather conditions.
• Our model favors the Buccaneers by 10.3 points, with a predicted total of 39.4 points, but New Orleans applies to a very good 184-79-7 ATS situation that has me leaning towards the Saints despite the model showing some value on the Bucs.

The Under is a Strong Opinion at 41.5 points or more.