Game Analysis

Note: The Over has moved out of range.

1-Star Best Bet – *Over (41.5) – Washington at MINNESOTA

Lean – Washington (+2)

• Max Brosmer was indeed a downgrade from JJ McCarthy as the undrafted rookie averaged 3.3 yppp last week.
• McCarthy will be back under center on Sunday, and Minnesota’s offense will also likely get back starting LT Christian Darrisaw, whose backup Justin Skule has surrendered 7 sacks (4th-most).
• I expect Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell to build back McCarthy’s confidence, facing by far the worst defense the young quarterback has gone against this year. The Commanders are surrendering 0.14 EPA/play (30th) and missing four starters.
• Marcus Mariota is averaging 0.16 EPA/play (9th) with a 51.1% success rate (7th) since the start of last season, and he remains the most capable backup quarterback in the NFL.
• Washington WR Terry McLaurin’s overtime touchdown against All-Pro CB Pat Surtain in his first game back last week was the first touchdown allowed in Surtain’s last 507 coverage snaps dating back to week 13 of 2024. McLaurin missed 7 games, and the offense is 0.8 points better when he is on the field by our metrics.
• Kliff Kingsbury’s offensive scheme is averaging 38% more yppp versus Cover 2 compared to other coverages (2nd) because of its emphasis on quick, horizontal stretches and intermediate crosses that exploit the seams and flats inherent in Cover 2’s two-deep structure. Kingsbury has a schematic advantage against a Vikings defense that leads the NFL with a 27% cover 2 rate.
• Our model favors the Commanders by 0.1 with a predicted total of 46.2.
• The above predictions are with Mariota at the helm. However, there is further upside if Jayden Daniels suits up this week. Washington head coach Dan Quinn said, “He’s going to get a lot of reps in practice this week,” and noted, “It’ll be all the way through Friday… because the practice portions that’ll be ongoing in terms of the evaluation and the movements and the contact.” Daniels said, “If I’m healthy and ready to go, I want to be out there.”

The Over is a 1-Star Best Bet at 42.5 points or less (Strong Opinion Over 43).