Game Analysis

Note: Kansas City is a Strong Opinion (0.5 Star play) at -4.

1-Star Best Bet – *KANSAS CITY (-3 -120) over Houston

Lean – Under (41.5)

• The Texans can virtually secure a postseason spot with a win, and the odds drop to about a coin flip with a loss. Meanwhile, the Chiefs would have a 65% chance of making the playoffs with a win and an 18% chance with a loss.
• We saw these teams meet in a must-win game (ie, the playoffs) last season. Kansas City closed -550 on the money line. De-vigged, the implied win percentage was 83%.
• The Chiefs are -185 on the money line this week. De-vigged implied 63% win probability.
• We have to account for 20 percentage points of change in Kansas City’s win probability from January.
• Let’s start by saying the bye week for the Chiefs in the playoffs was on the high end, worth 5% leaving 15 percentage points remaining.
• Houston’s offense is averaging 0.03 EPA/play more than 2024 with a new offensive coordinator and re-worked offensive line, but Kansas City’s offense is even better, averaging 0.08 EPA/play more than last year with WR Rashee Rice, who got knocked out of last season in week 4. The defenses are close to the exact same starters outside of some minor swaps.
• I think it’s fair to say the difference in these money lines can be explained by the Chiefs’ record in close games (irrelevant noise) and the state of Kansas City’s offensive line (relevant) against a Texans defense with a 41% pressure rate (4th).
• The Chiefs’ five starters along the offensive line in the playoffs last year were Joe Thuney, Mike Caliendo, Creed Humphrey, Trey Smith, and Jawaan Taylor. Kansas City’s five starters on Sunday are expected to be Wanya Morris, Kingsley Suamataia, Creed Humphrey, Mike Caliendo, and Jaylon Moore. The differences are Morris, Suamataia, and Moore.
• Thuney took over at left tackle in week 15 last year and allowed a 10.1% pressure rate through the Super Bowl. Morris hasn’t gotten much action in 2025 because the Chiefs drafted Josh Simmons in the first round, but Morris allowed an 8.2% pressure rate last year. I’m not saying Morris will be a better left tackle than Thuney was because obviously Kansas City’s coaching staff felt otherwise when they decided to start Thuney out of position last December, but the gap isn’t likely more than a half point.
• Suamataia has started all but one game this season, and he is conceding a 4.2% pressure rate on par with last year’s Trey Smith at 4.4%.
• The final comparison we need to make is Jaylon Moore to Jawaan Taylor. Moore is allowing an 8.2% pressure rate at tackle since the start of 2024, compared to Taylor allowing a 5.1% pressure rate in the same time span. Taylor is better, but again, the gap likely isn’t more than a half point. Kansas City GM Brett Veach gave Jaylon Moore a two-year, $30 million contract for a reason. Moore is a high-end NFL backup tackle.
• The starters on the Chiefs’ offensive line are about a point worse than the playoffs last year, equating to 3-4 percentage points of win probability.
• That leaves 10+ percentage points of win probability unaccounted for based on the money line comparison, and I think Kansas City should be favored by at least 5 on Sunday night.
• New Texans offensive coordinator Nick Caley hasn’t given CJ Stroud answers versus Cover 4. Stroud’s yppp against Cover 4 is only 76% of his yppp versus other coverages (31st), and Stroud will struggle as the Chiefs defense has the 3rd-highest Cover 4 rate.
• Patrick Mahomes is averaging 36% more yards per attempt versus zone compared to man-coverage, and he has a favorable matchup as Houston’s defense has an 84% zone-coverage rate (5th-highest).
• Our model favors the Chiefs by 5.5 points, with a predicted total of 41.1 points, and the Texans apply to a 10-51-2 ATS road letdown situation based on last week’s upset win over a division opponent (Indy). Kansas City, meanwhile, applies to a 120-52-3 ATS situation that plays on good offensive teams at home against strong defensive teams. And, Kansas City tends to play their best when things are not going well, as the Chiefs are 17-4 ATS from underdog to -9 when they have a 0.500 or worse season ATS percentage and are coming off a straight up loss.

Kansas City is a 1-Star Best Bet at -3.5 or less (Strong Opinion at -4).