Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – Minnesota (+9.5) over DETROIT

Lean – Under (48)

• Jared Goff has gone against Brian Flores in four games since he became Minnesota’s defensive coordinator. The Lions have scored 30+ in every game against the Vikings, but they’ve never eclipsed 400 yards. Detroit’s yardage in the four matchups projects to about 27 points per game.
• This version of Detroit’s offense is slightly worse than the previous two seasons, averaging 5.9 yppl compared to 6.1 yppl. I do not expect the Lions to score into the 30s on Sunday.
• Vikings’ All-Pro edge rusher Andrew Van Ginkel will be back on the field for his first game since week 3, and he is the key to Flores deploying a “6-1” front variation to contain Detroit’s offense. Van Ginkel upgrades Minnesota’s defense by a half point.
• Jared Goff’s Turnover Worthy Play rate under pressure is 6.2% (3rd-worst), and he will likely throw at least one interception as the Vikings have a league-high 46% pressure rate. The Lions ranked 20th in pass blocking efficiency in two games against Brian Flores last season.
• We should see Minnesota’s defense use bracket coverage on Detroit’s top WR Amon-Ra St. Brown. Lions TE Sam LaPorta is gaining 1.87 yards per route run (4th), but he will be limited by a Vikings defense that is conceding -0.06 EPA/target to opposing tight ends (3rd).
• Detroit’s secondary is getting back starting CB Terrion Arnold and S Brian Branch, but the Lions won’t have All-Pro S Kerby Joseph or cornerback DJ Reed on the field. Joseph and Reed are worth 0.6 and 0.7 points, respectively, by our metrics.
• Minnesota’s offense is allowing an 11.3% sack rate (31st) because the Vikings have been rotating everywhere across the offensive line this season, except right guard. Vikings backup offensive linemen have combined for 846 snaps. Minnesota should have everyone back except starting center Ryan Kelly to protect for JJ McCarthy.
• I expect the Vikings to focus on keeping McCarthy upright, shortening this game, and winding the clock.
• Our model favors the Lions by 6.5 points with a predicted total of 45.9 points.

Minnesota is a Strong Opinion at +8.5 or more.