Game Analysis

Lean – Over (49.5) – LA RAMS (-2) vs Miami

• Miami’s offense was a trainwreck without Tua Tagovailoa but they’ve only been 14th in EPA per play with the starting quarterback on the field which is well below last season when they averaged 0.10 EPA/play (4th).
• The Dolphins haven’t been able to get WR Tyreek Hill going as he’s averaging nearly 2 yards per route run less than last year. WR Jaylen Waddle is averaging 0.59 EPA/target (7th) but this might not be the game for Miami’s offense to feature the wide receivers.
• The Rams are surrendering a league-high 67% success rate to opposing tight ends and will struggle with TE Jonnu Smith, who has a 66% success rate (2nd).
• Dolphins RB De’Von Achane is averaging 0.17 EPA/target (2nd) and the screen game will be clicking against a Rams defense, who are worst in the NFL allowing a 66% receiving success rate to opposing running backs.
• Los Angeles edge rusher Jared Verse’s 39 pressures are the most for a rookie through the first nine weeks of the season in five years, but he will be shut down by LT Terron Armstead, who ranks 3rd in pass blocking efficiency.
• Miami’s defense has a league-high 42% pressure rate, and the Rams will be without starting RT Rob Havenstein, who ranks 20th in pass-blocking efficiency. Backup Warren McClendon is surrendering an 11% pressure rate.
• Los Angeles leads the NFL with a 78% motion rate but the Dolphins’ yppp allowed against motion is a league-low 83% compared to no motion from the opposing offense.
• Miami CB Jalen Ramsey conceding 0.73 yards per cover snap (7th) and he will contain WR Cooper Kupp, who is averaging 2.19 yards per route run (11th). WR Puka Nacua will be limited by Dolphins’ cornerback Kendall Fuller, who is allowing just 0.66 yards per cover snap (4th).
• We Rams by 2.4 points with a predicted total of 53.4.